Grizzlies vs Warriors Game 4 Picks and Predictions: Dubs Cruise vs. Ja-less Grizz

Memphis is one of the NBA's deeper squads, faring well without superstar Ja Morant during stretches of the regular season, but will that depth be enough to keep things close on the road against Golden State? Read our NBA betting preview to find out.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
May 9, 2022 • 19:02 ET • 4 min read
Jordan Poole Golden State Warriors NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Memphis Grizzlies have survived without star guard Ja Morant before, going 20-5 SU and 18-6-1 ATS with the NBA’s Most Improved Player on the sidelines this season. 

Memphis’ depth and energy have been able to turn it up without Morant in the mix, but Monday’s Game 4 versus the Golden State Warriors could be different.

Morant is doubtful with a knee injury and books are pegging the shorthanded Grizzlies as double-digit road underdogs. Can Memphis keep the covers coming with their leader out of action?

We give our best NBA picks and predictions for Grizzlies at Warriors on May 9.

Grizzlies vs Warriors odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Memphis opened as low as +9 and with news that Morant is likely to miss Game 4, this spread crept as high as +10.5 before seeing some buyback on Memphis down to 10-point road dogs. The total hit the board at 227 points and has dropped three points to as low as 224 as of Monday morning.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Grizzlies vs Warriors predictions

Predictions made on 5/9/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Grizzlies vs Warriors game info

Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Date: Monday, May 9, 2022
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET

Grizzlies vs Warriors series odds

Grizzlies: +650
Warriors: -1,000

Grizzlies vs Warriors betting preview

Key injuries

Grizzlies: Ja Morant G (Doubtful).
Warriors: Gary Payton Jr. G (Out), Andre Iguodala F (Out), Otto Porter F (Probable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 10-4 in Grizzlies’ last 14 games as underdogs. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Warriors.

Grizzlies vs Warriors picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Depth has been one of the Grizzlies’ biggest strengths during this renaissance season, ranked out sixth in points production and No. 1 in bench minutes. 

As mentioned above, Memphis has plenty of experience playing without Morant’s infinite motor in the backcourt but while the Grizzlies’ bench has padded any drop-off when the starters need a seat, the one team that goes deeper than a Christopher Nolan flick is Golden State.

Even with Gary Payton Jr. and Andre Iguodala out of action, the Warriors can reach far down the pine for production. Golden State is averaging more than 44 bench points per game in the postseason and leaning on that support staff for 18.8 minutes per contest – just below Memphis.

This current spread is a bit of Morant’s absence mixed with the Dubs’ 142-point eruption in Game 3 with a little home-court advantage sprinkled in. But considering the Game 3 line had Golden State laying -7 with Morant on the floor, a bump of three points seems a little short – even when you consider how tough the Grizz have hung without their star.

The Warriors will not fire at a 63% success rate on offense as regression is expected, but it will be their depth that undoes Memphis. An all-out effort from the remaining Grizzlies is expected and will keep this game close for at least a half – maybe even into the fourth quarter.

But when Memphis expects that edge to be there when opposing starters get a blow, it will find no mercy from the Warriors bench and that will eventually break this game open and lift Golden State over the oddsmakers’ expectations.

Prediction: Warriors -10 (-110 at PointsBet)

Over/Under analysis

Neither team has really clamped down on defense in this series, as the Grizzlies and Warriors boast a series pace rating of 102.50 and totals for this conference semifinal constantly sit in the mid-220s.

Missing Morant takes away a good chunk of the Grizzlies’ attack, with his ability to break down defenders, get to the hoop or create shots when the defense collapses. We’ve seen the Grizzlies tighten their belts on defense without Morant this season, but that led to a 12-13 Over/Under count in his absence.

Golden State doesn’t have to protect the paint from a slashing Morant as it has in the opening games of the series, mixing in tight help defense with plenty of zone defense – daring the Grizzlies guards to shoot from outside. More man-to-man sets should help inject a little pace into Game 4 as the Grizzlies won’t have to chew up as much clock working the ball around in search of space.

Memphis’ depth can handle the downtick in production within the starting lineup without Morant but won’t be as productive when Taylor Jenkins looks down the pine or is forced to go beyond his regular rotation due to foul trouble. That also leaves the Grizzlies open to bad matchups on defense against the Warriors' super subs like Jordan Poole. 

The Grizzlies will continue to pick up plenty of easy buckets off turnovers. Golden State coughed the ball up 17 times in Game 3 and Memphis made 24 points from those errors, but the Dubs’ breakneck scoring success covered up that mess. The Warriors barf up almost 18 turnovers per contest in this series which the Grizzlies have translated into an average of nearly 22 points.

Prediction: Over 224 (-110 at PointsBet)

Best bet

This series has seen its share of “chippiness”. Hard fouls, questionable calls, bad injuries, and finger-pointing on both sides carry over into Game 4. 

Jordan Poole is the latest villain after his knee-in-knee contact (and subsequent grab) injured Morant in Game 3, which the NBA deemed as inadvertent and didn’t punish Poole for the series in question.

With Memphis’ lineup stretched a little thinner due to Morant being out, Poole could find himself facing more of the Grizzlies’ reserves as well as opposing players logging more minutes than usual, giving him an edge on offense.

The Warriors’ sensational sixth man has torched the Grizzlies in this series, averaging 26 points on 58% shooting. Poole will likely have a target on his back tonight, with Memphis not holding back on its physicality whenever Poole attacks the paint.

Tack on some extra trips to the foul line and we like Poole to go Over his modest point total of 20.5 for Game 4.

Pick: Jordan Poole Over 20.5 points (-114)

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