The 8-seed Orlando Magic are 48 minutes away from eliminating the top-seeded Detroit Pistons in what would be one of the biggest upsets in more than a decade.
Key Takeaways
- The Pistons would become the fifth-largest favorite to lose to an 8-seed as a No. 1.
- Oddsmakers have the Pistons as 9.5-point favorites in Game 5.
- Cade Cunningham committed the most turnovers in a three-game stretch in nearly 50 years.
Up to this point, there have only been six 8-over-1 upsets in the NBA.
| Year | Losing Team | Winning Team | Series Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Milwaukee Bucks | Miami Heat | -1,200/+750 |
| 2012 | Chicago Bulls | Philadelphia 76ers | -1,400/+900 |
| 2011 | San Antonio Spurs | Memphis Grizzlies | -390/+280 |
| 2007 | Dallas Mavericks | Golden State Warriors | -1,800/+1,200 |
| 1999 | Miami Heat | New York Knicks | -280/+230 |
| 1994 | Seattle SuperSonics | Denver Nuggets | -2,000/+1,400 |
The Magic find themselves up 3-1 on the Pistons after a 94-88 victory in Game 4 on Monday. DraftKings now has the Magic as -255 favorites to win the series, while the Pistons are +210 underdogs.
Those marks are sharp deviations from where the teams opened the series. DraftKings had the Magic at +380, or a 20.8% implied chance, while the Pistons were -500 to move on to the second round.
The most interesting aspect of this topsy-turvy start to the series is that it doesn’t involve any mitigating circumstances.
In 2023, the Miami Heat - +750 series underdogs against the Milwaukee Bucks, per Sports Odds History - were buoyed by Giannis Antetokounmpo suffering a lower back contusion 11 minutes into Game 1. He did not return and missed two contests before returning for Game 4. The Greek Freak averaged 32 points, 15 rebounds, and eight assists in the two contests following his return, but the Bucks still lost the series in five games.
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Can Pistons avoid huge upset?
There’s plenty of blame to go around for the Pistons. The Magic only barely squeaked through the play-in tournament, losing the 7-8 matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers and winning their do-or-die game against the Charlotte Hornets.
Among the Pistons’ many issues are their misfiring stars. Cade Cunningham has posted impressive averages of 29.5 points, 7.5 assists, and 6.3 rebounds, but his shooting percentage dropped to 42.4%. He has also averaged a grotesque 6.8 turnovers per game and committed the most turnovers (24) in a three-game stretch in the playoffs since 1977-78.
Jalen Duren, who is expected to challenge for an All-NBA team after averaging 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds on 65% shooting, has not shown up for the series. He has averaged 9.8 points and 8.3 rebounds on 46.9% shooting, never scoring more than 12 points and failing to hit double-digit rebounds in all four games.
The supporting cast hasn’t provided much help. The team has shot a combined 27.5% from three, by far the worst in the playoffs, and committed the second-most turnovers per game.
Having said all that, DraftKings still installed the Pistons as -9.5 favorites in Game 5 on Wednesday. Their only win in the series came on their home floor, where they will be for Game 5 and where they went 31-9 during the regular season. The Magic were 19-20 on the road.
NBA title odds remain calm
While the Magic find themselves in a much more secure position than the Pistons, oddsmakers still aren’t showing them much respect. DraftKings lists them at +15,000 in NBA championship odds, while the Pistons are still at +4,500.
The Pistons' +210 series odds suggest they still have a near-one-in-three chance to rip off three straight wins and salvage their season. That will require them to do something they failed to do this season, as they split their regular-season series with Orlando at two games apiece.
