Anthony Edwards’ improbable return to the Minnesota Timberwolves’ lineup for the team's shocking Game 1 victory over the San Antonio Spurs caused a seismic change in NBA betting odds.
Key Takeaways
- Edwards was expected to be out for part or all of the series.
- The Spurs are still a comfortable second place in odds to win the NBA Finals.
- Teams that go up 1-0 in a playoff series end up winning more than 77% of the time.
FanDuel sportsbook opened with the Spurs, the West's second-place finishers, at -3,000 amid uncertainty over Edwards' future. The Timberwolves' star guard sustained a hyperextension and bone bruise to his left knee in Game 4 of the first round against the Denver Nuggets and was given a two-to-six-week return timeline.
Rumors swirled that there was a chance Edwards could be ready for Game 1, so FanDuel dropped San Antonio to -2,200 on Sunday, a day before the series opener. Oddsmakers pivoted again when it was announced Monday that Edwards was likely to play in Game 1. The Spurs were knocked down to -600, while Minnesota shortened to +450.
The T-Wolves still had a ton of work to do in Game 1. They entered as 9.5-point underdogs without Donte DiVinceno and Ayo Dosunmu against a Spurs team that had enjoyed several extra days of rest and was at home, where it went 32-8 in the regular season.
Despite the Spurs’ advantages, the T-Wolves emerged with a two-point victory as Julian Champagnie’s would-be game-winning 3-pointer clanked off the rim at the buzzer. Julius Randle led the way with 21 points and 10 rebounds, and Edwards had 18 points (11 in the fourth quarter) in 25 minutes off the bench.
Victor Wembanyama set an all-time playoff record with 12 blocks to go with his 15 rebounds, but he only scored 11 points on 29.4% shooting.
FanDuel now has the Spurs at -186 (65% implied chance) and the Timberwolves at +156 (39% chance) to win the series. The Spurs are -9.5 favorites again for Game 2.
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NBA Finals odds picture
The Timberwolves’ early advantage hasn’t caused a massive change in the championship picture.
The Spurs still find themselves second in NBA championship odds at +470, behind the Oklahoma City Thunder (-170). However, they are down from about +340, where they were before their Game 1 loss.
On the flip side, the Timberwolves are sixth of the eight remaining teams in title odds at +3,000. Only the Los Angeles Lakers (+3,500) and Philadelphia 76ers (+7,000) have longer odds.
BetMGM insights shared with Covers on Monday revealed that the Spurs led all remaining teams in tickets (10.9%) and were second in money wagered (16.8%) in the NBA Finals futures market. The Timberwolves were sixth in tickets (5.5%) and handle (5.2%).
Bettors also loved the Spurs to win the Western Conference. They drew 21.3% of bets and 23.3% of the pot, which ranked first and second, repectively, in the West.
The Timberwolves were fourth in wagers (12.6%) and handle (9.5%) of the eight remaining teams.
History favors underdogs
While the Spurs are still favored to win their second-round series, they will have to overcome a strong historical precedent.
Teams that take a 1-0 series lead have won 700 of 901 series (77.1%), according to Land of Basketball. Stripping away all other data points, that would suggest the Timberwolves have -337 odds to win the series, and the Spurs should be +337 (assuming no vig).
Minneosta now has a combined regular-season and playoff record of 3-1 against San Antonio. The teams will meet for Game 2 on Wednesday at 9:30 p.m. ET.
