Pacers vs Thunder First Basket Picks & Odds for Tonight's Game 7

Our Pacers vs. Thunder first basket picks have their eyes on Chet Holmgren and Tyrese Haliburton.

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst
Jun 22, 2025 • 13:45 ET • 4 min read
Chet Holmgren Oklahoma City Thunder NBA
Photo By - Imagn Images. Chet Holmgren waits to check into the game against the Pacers.

It would have been understandable in Game 6 if Tyrese Haliburton was a bit hesitant early. He needed to see how his strained calf would react to game speed, undoubtedly stressed by the Oklahoma City Thunder’s defense. And yet, the Indiana Pacers superstar was aggressive early.

If he was that assertive then, he should be even more so in Game 7 tonight, perhaps right from the opening tip at 8 ET on Sunday, June 22. Read more in my NBA picks below.

Pacers vs Thunder first basket picks

Click on each name to jump to the full analysis

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Indiana Pacers

First basket pick: Tyrese Haliburton (+1400 at bet365)

Tyrese Haliburton missed his first four shots in Game 6, yet it stands out that he took five shots in the first frame. That worrying calf did not force him away from aggression. Recognizing that provides some value on Haliburton to score first tonight, his odds at a lofty +1400.

He should be more comfortable tonight. Game 6 did not require much stress on Haliburton’s calf, playing only 23 minutes and then getting three days of treatment before Game 7. By no means is he healthy now, but he should be slightly healthier.

Mostly, though, Haliburton should be more confident. He very much knows what his calf is capable of, and he has hit shots with it hurting. After starting 0-for-4 on Thursday, he finished 5-for-8, including 3-for-6 from deep.

Learning what worked and what didn’t work — specifically, that his drives are not explosive at the moment, but his shooting form holds up — should be a boon in Game 7.

Oklahoma City Thunder

First basket pick: Chet Holmgren (+550 at bet365)

It stands out that the first four players in this market are all Oklahoma City Thunder players. Chet Holmgren has done that well with the opening tip against Myles Turner, winning it five times in six games.

However, Holmgren has taken the first shot just once, missing a short-range look in Game 6. So perhaps Holmgren’s odds are shorter than one might like, but OKC should emphasize him early. His 2-for-9 shooting in Game 6 was costly, eventually finishing with four points and six rebounds in 24 minutes.

The Thunder need Holmgren to be dialed in to create space for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams.

Pacers vs Thunder first basket odds

  • Chet Holmgren (+550)
  • Jalen Williams (+550)
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+600)
  • Isaiah Hartenstein (+650)
  • Pascal Siakam (+650)
  • Myles Turner (+850)
  • Aaron Nesmith (+1,000)
  • Lu Dort (+1,100)
  • Tyrese Haliburton (+1,400)
  • Andrew Nembhard (+1,400)

Odds courtesy of bet365.

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Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

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