It all comes down to Sunday night, as the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Indiana Pacers in a winner-take-all Game 7
My Pacers vs. Thunder predictions for this winner-take-all matchup expect Finals history to repeat itself when it comes to the total and spread.
I’m also counting on a bounce-back performance from Myles Turner in my NBA picks for June 22.
Pacers vs Thunder SGP - June 22
Under 215
Pacers +7.5
Myles Turner Over 18.5 points + rebounds + assists
It’s human nature to slow down and take your time in high-pressure situations. NBA Finals history has shown us that the pace slows down, scoring dips, and players get tight when a Game 7 is forced.
In 19 Game 7s in Finals history, only three have gone for more than 215 points, and each of the last 12 have hit the Under on that number. You’d have to go back to 1962, when Bill Russell’s Celtics defeated the Lakers, for a game that went for more than 215 total points.
Each of the last five Game 7s finished below 190 total points, and 11 of 19 have hit that number. Although the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder both boast elite offenses, they’ve hit the Under in two of their last three, and I expect a low-scoring slugfest on Sunday.
The Pacers will wrap up the Finals having been the underdog in all seven contests. The Thunder are excellent at home, but Indiana has been far too good to be spotted 7.5 points. The Pacers are 14-8 ATS in the playoffs, including 7-4 on the road.
Each of the last six Game 7s of the Finals have been decided by seven points or fewer, and 14 of 19 have featured a margin that slim. Bet on Indiana keeping it close here.
Myles Turner has averaged 20.3 PRA in the playoffs, including 19.5 at home and 21.2 on the road. He’s hit the Over on this line in 12 of 22 games, reaching that mark in eight of 11 away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Although the Pacers center shot just 1-of-9 from the floor in Game 6, I expect Turner to rise to the occasion on Sunday.
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