Donovan Mitchell looked like he was in for a long night against the Detroit Pistons before erupting for 39 of his 43 points in the second half of Monday’s series-tying win.
The Cleveland Cavaliers star guard leads his team back into the belly of the beast in Game 5 of this Eastern Conference semifinal, with the Cavs pegged as underdogs in Detroit.
Our Cavaliers vs. Pistons predictions focus on Mitchell’s matchups and projected output, giving you my best NBA picks for Wednesday, May 13.
Donovan Mitchell prop pick
Donovan Mitchell best bet: Donovan Mitchell Over 3.5 assists (-120 at bet365)
Donovan Mitchell took over in the second half of Game 4, so you can excuse him for not sharing the ball as he powered the Cleveland Cavaliers to the win.
Mitchell finished with just two assists on four potential dimes, with both coming in the first half.
The Detroit Pistons will aim to keep Mitchell out of the paint in Game 5, meaning quicker help and tighter coverage to force Spida to get rid of the basketball. He scored 14 of his 43 points inside the key, and Detroit can’t afford for him to find a rhythm again tonight.
If the Pistons can tighten those defensive screws, we will see more drive-and-kick and dump-downs from Mitchell, prompting more playmaking from the Cavs shooting guard.
Mitchell recorded nine total assists on 20 potential dimes in the opening three games of the series, including four assists in Game 3. He’s topped his assist prop only once in the playoffs, driving his passing total down from 5.5 O/U to its current stand of 3.5 O/U.
Having averaged almost six assists in the regular season, Mitchell is projected for five dimes in Game 5, with his models ranging from 4.4 to as high as 5.3. That’s more than enough to get past his dwindling assist total.
Donovan Mitchell same-game parlay
Over 212.5
Donovan Mitchell Over 3.5 assists
Donovan Mitchell Over 4.5 rebounds
The Pistons' offense needs to be better in the halfcourt if it can’t convert defense into transition buckets. Detroit is emphasizing movement, both the ball and cutting, heading into tonight. That will prompt more points, especially with Detroit playing at home.
After collecting two dimes in the first half, Mitchell's 67% shooting streak in the final 24 minutes had the Cavs jumping on the shoulders of their star. Projections for tonight call for at least four dimes as Detroit tries to take the ball out of Mitchell’s hands.
Mitchell has also been active on the glass in this series. Cleveland’s bigs are selling out hard to box out the Pistons' offensive rebounders, and that’s left the Cavs' guard with a surplus of rebounding chances. Mitchell pulled in five boards in Game 4 and is forecasted for another five rebounds tonight.
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