The early game of Thursday's TNT doubleheader is a doozy, with the Boston Celtics continuing their Western Conference roadtrip with a date against the Dallas Mavericks.
Boston comes into Dallas having been humiliated on Tuesday, giving up 150 points to a Thunder team playing without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Dallas, meanwhile, has won seven in a row as Luka Doncic continues the best season of his still-blossoming Hall of Fame career.
Ahead of a great game in Texas, check out our NBA picks and predictions for the Celtics vs. Mavericks on January 5.
Celtics vs Mavericks best odds
Celtics vs Mavericks picks and predictions
While Luka Doncic continues to make his case as a bona fide MVP candidate this season, Christian Wood has begun to resemble the Robin the Mavs expected him to be in the offseason. So much so, in fact, that Dallas and Wood are engaging in a possible extension.
We can debate the logic — or lack thereof — in that decision at a later date. For now, we're going to zero in on Wood tonight and highlight the logic in backing him to hit the Over on his points total for a sixth straight game.
The big man's surge for Dallas coincides with head coach Jason Kidd's decision to insert Wood into the starting lineup, after he had begun the season coming off the bench as a Sixth Man of the Year candidate.
In the first 26 games of the season, 25 of which Wood came off the bench in, the former Piston averaged 17.2 points per game on 40% from 3-point range and 55% from the field. Since he was inserted into the starting five on December 17, the Mavs have seen Wood increase his scoring output to 19.7 points per game while maintaining 40% efficiency from three.
(Crucially, against a team in the Celtics that can attack the rim at will, Wood's affecting shooters on the other end at a higher rate too — his blocks have jumped up from 0.6 to 2.8 per game — giving Kidd further reason to stick with Wood in a high-stakes clash.)
Wood's task tonight may be a little more difficult, with Robert Williams probable for Boston, but one has to assume the Celtics will tread lightly with Timelord having managed just 132 minutes across seven games this season as he continues to battle with injuries.
Without one of the NBA's premier shot-erasers and weak-side lurkers in Williams at full go to disrupt Wood, we can feel great about him going Over his points total yet again — Al Horford's fundamentals be dammed.
My best bet: Christian Wood Over 18.5 points (-115)
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Celtics vs Mavericks spread analysis
Despite a host of factors that would suggest otherwise — Boston's middling play for the past five weeks and midweek embarassment vs. OKC, the Mavs' current hot streak, and their status as hosts tonight — the Celtics are between a 3- and 3.5-point favorite tonight.
Granted, Williams' return for Boston will be a boost but it's difficult to envision him topping 22 minutes if he does indeed play. Dallas is without two key players in Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber but it has been thriving over this recent stretch even in their absence.
This is a well-rested Mavericks team, at home, in great form. I would happily take them with the points but will sooner just take Dallas on the moneyline.
Celtics vs Mavericks Over/Under analysis
After opening at 229.5, the total has ticked up a coupel of points to 231.5. Both teams lean toward the Over on the year — the Mavs at 22-16 and the Celtics 20-17-1 O/U — but both are compentent and well-coached defenses.
It's difficult to feel strongly either way. The Celtics have struggled defensively lately (150 points to OKC stands out) but, on the other side, the Mavs are hugely dependant on the help around Doncic knocking down their open looks.
Covers' Consensus highlights just how much of a coin flip the total is here, with 52% on the Over and 48% on the Under. I'm off the full-game total tonight.
Celtics vs Mavericks betting trend to know
The Celtics are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Mavericks.
Celtics vs Mavericks game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, January 5, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
