Things are supposed to be easier for the No. 1 seed, right?
The Detroit Pistons have found themselves in two tight series to start the NBA Playoffs. This Eastern Conference semifinal set with the Cleveland Cavaliers is knotted at 2-2 as it swings back to Motown for Game 5 tonight.
Our Cavaliers vs. Pistons props dissect the individual efforts for both teams, giving you my best NBA picks for Wednesday, May 13.
It's all part of our full Cavaliers vs. Pistons predictions for this pivotal clash.
Best Cavaliers vs Pistons props for Game 5
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 James Harden |
Over 2.5 threes | +115 |
 Tobias Harris |
Under 18.5 points | -105 |
| Jalen Duren |
Yes - Double-Double | +130 |
Game 5 Prop #1: James Harden Over 2.5 threes
Lost in the glow of Donovan Mitchell’s 43-point explosion in Game 4 was James Harden’s 5-for-9 night from beyond the arc.
The Cleveland Cavaliers' veteran guard is starting to find his range after a 1-for-11 start to the series from distance. He dialed in for 3 of 7 3-pointers in Game 3 and continued to cook in Monday’s victory.
Two of those triples were on pull-up jumpers with the Detroit Pistons playing passing perimeter defense, and the other three makes were generated in dribble-drive kickouts to Harden’s waiting hands.
All five 3-point makes were graded as “open” to “wide open” with seven of his nine 3PAs coming without a defender within at least four feet. In the first two games in Detroit, Harden just wasn’t getting that same space (or making his shots), going 1-for-7 on those graded attempts.
Projections for Game 5 have Harden’s treys ranging between 2.4 and 3.0, with the majority of models at 2.9 or higher. He’s bagged three or more 3-pointers in six of his 11 playoff games.
Game 5 Prop #2: Tobias Harris Under 18.5 points
Pistons veteran forward Tobias Harris has stepped up in the postseason, serving as one of the biggest surprises.
With Jalen Duren struggling, Harris is averaging more than 20 points in the playoffs after putting up just north of 13 per game in the regular season.
That hot streak has boosted his points props from 13.5 O/U to 18.5, with Harris playing Over his scoring total in the first 10 postseason games before coming up short of his inflated total in Game 4.
Harris, who is shooting almost 47% from the field in the tournament, finished 6-for-17 with 16 points on Monday, going Under his closing total of 18.5 points. He played 36 minutes despite suffering a hip injury in the most “old man” way ever: getting crossed up by Mitchell midway through the first quarter.
Regression is ripe for Harris at this point in the postseason, and a lingering hip injury is just the spark to start that slide. His player projections all come in south of his current O/U of 18.5 for Game 5, with a low of 14 points.
Game 5 Prop #3: Jalen Duren – Double-Double
Duren stands 6-foot-10 and weighs 250 pounds. That makes his postseason disappearing act all the more puzzling. How could someone so big just… POOF!... into thin air?
Duren, who averaged almost 20 points per game in the regular season, is struggling to score double digits in the tournament. He’s also having a tough time with the Cavaliers’ lengthy frontcourt, drawing more whistles (8) than total rebounds (6) the past two games.
A return to the Motor City sparks the Pistons’ big body, who averaged 20.3 points and 11.4 boards inside Little Caesars Arena this season.
The potential for boards is there for Duren, who’s been in position for 31 rebounding chances the last two contests but has secured only six of those misses. And while he’s not shooting at his normal volume, he is making what he’s taking the past two games: shooting 9 for 16 from the floor.
Duren has stayed Under his scoring prop in all but one of the Pistons’ 11 playoff games and is 2-9 O/U versus his rebounding totals. His player projections are tough to trust at this point, but all forecasts call for 10+ points and 10+ rebounds in Game 5.
Duren recorded the fifth-most double-double efforts in the regular season, and the “Yes” option in this market is now paying out at plus-money, something you’d rarely see with his props. Asking for 10 and 10 seems realistic, even with his current struggles.
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