🏁Xfinity 500: Key takeaways
- Best pre-qualifying prediction: Christopher Bell (7%) — Won this race in 2022, and it was no fluke.
- Best pre-qualifying value: Ty Gibbs (6%) — Dangerous if he can build on March effort here.
- Best pre-qualifying prop: Josh Berry Top 10 (45%) — A winning ticket in two straight Martinsville visits.
- Track: Passing is tough, so maintaining track position is vital.
- Weather: Cool with overcast skies.
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Xfinity 500 odds: Favorites & full field
Check out the full Xfinity 500 field.
| Driver Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | 17% |
| Denny Hamlin | 16% |
| Joey Logano | 11% |
| Kyle Larson | 10% |
| Chase Elliott | 9% |
| Chase Briscoe | 8% |
| Christopher Bell | 7% |
| William Byron | 6% |
| Ty Gibbs | 6% |
| Bubba Wallace | 5% |
Odds as of 10-31. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Xfinity 500 predictions (updated Saturday)
- Outright: Christopher Bell (7%)
- Outright: Ty Gibbs (6%)
- Top 10: Josh Berry (45%)
Who's hot? Who's not?
- 🔥 Kyle Larson — boasts three wins in eight playoff races, missing the Top 10 just once.
- ❄️ Connor Zilisch — 20th or worse in last six races, including a 29th at Talladega despite qualifying third.
Track breakdown: What wins at Martinsville Speedway?
- Teams will weigh two-tire vs. four-time changes on pit road, or even staying out to protect track position during cautions. The right call can make the difference in the closing laps.
- Martinsville’s short-track tire setup is designed to create wear over longer runs, making tire conservation critical. Drivers must balance defending the bottom groove and gaining track position on restarts with managing rear-tire heat to maintain grip and acceleration deeper into a run.
Key stats & driver profiles to target
- Drivers in the Top 8 in the playoff standings have won each of the last seven Martinsville fall races.
- The driver that's led the most laps has won only 38% of races held at Martinsville in the NextGen era.
Drivers to watch
- Denny Hamlin has six career victories at Martinsville. That's double the next-leading active driver (William Byron).
Odds movement & market notes
- Given how often Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney have raced at the front at Martinsville, and the gap in the odds to the rest of the pack, it's hard to see them not comprising the Top 2 at Kalshi on race day.
- Ty Gibbs is simply too low at 6%, and investors later in the week may latch on to him, especially if he qualifies well.
Outright picks: Winner predictions
Pick 1: Christopher Bell to win (7%)
Right combo of overall form, short-track prowess, and price.
- Track Fit: Seventh or better in three straight.
- Recent Form: Five 100+ driver ratings in eight playoff races.
- Market Value: Play to 11%.
Risk: Main danger is one of his teammates in Hamlin.
Pick made on Saturday, Oct. 31.
Pick 2: Ty Gibbs to win (6%)
Both wins in '26 have come on short tracks.
- Track Fit: Solid fourth in spring race with two stage placings.
- Recent Form: 10th at Phoenix prior to a 17th at tricky Talladega.
- Market Value: Play to 8%.
Risk: Has finished worse than he qualified in five straight.
Pick made on Saturday, Oct. 31.
Best top finish predictions
Pick 1: Josh Berry Top 10 (45%)
Eighth or better in three straight short-track races.
- Track Fit: 10th here last spring and last fall.
- Recent Form: Average finish of ninth in last three overall.
- Market Value: Play to 48%.
Risk: Has led only 102 laps all year.
Pick made on Saturday, Oct. 31.
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How to watch the Xfinity 500
| Location: | Martinsville Speedway, Ridgeway, VA |
| Date: | Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026 |
| Start time: | 2 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Check out the full weekend schedule for the 2026 Xfinity 500.
Martinsville Speedway weather
The high temperature will be just 63 degrees on a calm, cloudy day in Ridgeway, VA.
Previous Xfinity 500 winners
| Year | Winner | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | William Byron | Chevrolet |
| 2024 | Ryan Blaney | Ford |
| 2023 | Ryan Blaney | Ford |
| 2022 | Christopher Bell | Toyota |
| 2021 | Alex Bowman | Chevrolet |
Xfinity 500 FAQs
When is the 2026 Xfinity 500?
The Xfinity 500 will be held at 2 p.m. ET on NBC this Sunday, Nov. 1.
Where will the 2026 Xfinity 500 be held?
Martinsville Speedway is the site for the 2026 Xfinity 500.
Who is the 2026 Xfinity 500 favorite?
Ryan Blaney is favored to win the Xfinity 500.
Who won the Xfinity 500 last year?
William Byron is the defending champion of this race.
How do Xfinity 500 props work?
There are numerous NASCAR props for the Xfinity 500, including Top 3, Top 5, and Top 10 markets.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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