Kyle Larson, sleeper contender? That's what the NASCAR Cup Series odds are indicating ahead of the Freeway Insurance 500 at Phoenix Raceway, with Kalshi traders gravitating toward Ryan Blaney (21%), Christopher Bell (17%), and Denny Hamlin (13%) instead.
My Freeway Insurance 500 long-shot predictions and sleeper picks won't look a gift horse in the mouth with the No. 5 driver.
See why my free picks for Sunday, Oct. 18 are also leaning on Josh Berry at a big number.
NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500 sleeper picks
Picks made on 10-16. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500 long-shot predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Kyle Larson
Kalshi probability: 10%
Play to 11%.
Kyle Larson lost little in defeat at Charlotte, running sixth with a 126.7 driver rating while leading 97 laps. He's now finished sixth or better in eight of his last nine overall, with the exception coming at chaotic Daytona.
Although Larson has just one Cup Series victory at Phoenix (his championship-clinching triumph in November 2021), he's been Top 5 in six of his last seven starts.
Sleeper pick to win: William Byron
Kalshi probability: 5%
I gave out William Byron in this spot last week, and he was wiped out in an early accident at Charlotte Motor Speedway. I'll draw a line through that effort and back him once again to 6%.
Byron had posted four straight Top 10s prior to the Bank of America 400. He's hit the Top 10 in six of his last eight visits to Phoenix, including a trip to Victory Lane in March of 2023.
Sleeper pick to win: Josh Berry
Kalshi probability: 3%
I'm stuck at 3% here.
Josh Berry has three Top 10s in six Cup Series starts at Phoenix, highlighted by a pair of 100+ driver ratings in 2025. He finished 32nd due to a wreck in his earlier visit here this season.
Berry exits a fourth at Charlotte, his eighth Top 10 in his last 11 races.
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