The NASCAR Cup Series odds have seen mostly formful results as the playoffs roll on, but Talladega Superspeedway threatens to wreak havoc this week.
My YellaWood 500 long-shot predictions and sleeper picks and free picks for Sunday, Oct. 25 will tell you who's offering value to visit Victory Lane, including Ryan Preece.
NASCAR YellaWood 500 sleeper picks
Picks made on 10-23. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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NASCAR YellaWood 500 long-shot predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Ryan Preece
Kalshi probability: 2%
I'm stunned not to see Ryan Preece's name closer to the Top 10. I'm on the RFK Racing driver all the way to 5%.
Preece placed in both stages in this year's spring race at Talladega, leading 21 laps in the process. It's the third time in a row he's led at least one lap here.
Let's not forget that he won at Daytona, another drafting track, earlier this season to clinch a playoff spot.
Sleeper pick to win: Todd Gilliland
Kalshi probability: 2%
Hold firm at 2%.
Todd Gilliland boasts the best average finishing position (12.9) at Talladega among active full-time Cup Series drivers. His runner-up finish at the track last fall marked the best result of his Cup career at any venue.
Despite starting 27th, Gilliland recorded an impressive 100 driver rating in that race, highlighting his ability to navigate traffic and find opportunities in the draft at superspeedways.
Gilliland ran 11th at Talladega this spring while placing in both stages.
Sleeper pick to win: Noah Gragson
Kalshi probability: 2%
I'm stuck at 2% here.
All three of Noah Gragson’s Top 5 finishes in his 144-race career have come on superspeedways, including two at Talladega. He finished third here in April 2024 after leading five laps, then followed that up with a fourth-place result in April 2025.
He was also ninth in the Jack Link's 500 over this course earlier this season, his best finish in 2026.
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