🏁Freeway Insurance 500: Key takeaways
- Best pre-qualifying prediction: Denny Hamlin to win (13%) — losses mounting, but form's still good overall and at Phoenix.
- Best pre-qualifying value: Kyle Larson Top 3 (27%) — a relative bargain, with other contenders priced closer to a coin-flip.
- Best pre-qualifying prop: Josh Berry Top 10 (48%) — continues to get overlooked on a weekly basis.
- Track: Have a car that's good in multiple grooves, and be mistake-free on pit road.
- Weather: Ideal conditions expected.
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Freeway Insurance 500 odds: Favorites & full field
Check out the full Freeway Insurance 500 field.
| Driver Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | 21% |
| Christopher Bell | 19% |
| Denny Hamlin | 13% |
| Joey Logano | 11% |
| Kyle Larson | 10% |
| Chase Briscoe | 10% |
| William Byron | 5% |
| Ty Gibbs | 5% |
| Tyler Reddick | 5% |
| Chase Elliott | 3% |
Odds as of 10-17. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Freeway Insurance 500 predictions (updated Saturday)
- Outright: Denny Hamlin (13%)
- Top 3: Kyle Larson (27%)
- Top 10: Josh Berry (48%)
Who's hot? Who's not?
- 🔥 Chase Briscoe — Enters on two-race winning streak (three straight Top 5s).
- ❄️ John Hunter Nemechek — No Top 10s in 16 straight races.
Track breakdown: What wins at Phoenix Raceway?
- Phoenix Raceway is a relatively flat, one-mile oval in Avondale, Arizona. Its distinctive frontstretch dogleg adds an extra challenge to the racing, particularly during restarts, as drivers navigate different lines across the track in pursuit of speed.
- Crew chiefs must balance two-tire vs. four-tire changes, and fuel-only strategies to gain track position. Having clean air up front is more important than tire wear.
Key stats & driver profiles to target
- 60% of Phoenix winners have started in the Top 10 (Over 41% from the Top 5).
- Hendrick Motorsports has the most wins at Phoenix (13), though none since 2023.
Drivers to watch
- Curiously, the 13th starting spot has been lucky for three active drivers (Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Christopher Bell). That's also the furthest back in the pack any active driver has won from.
Odds movement & market notes
- Barring a qualifying mishap, it's hard to see Ryan Blaney (21%) not going off favored as he seeks a third straight win here. However, Christopher Bell does not have that going for him, and 19% seems steep.
- A good qualifying run could move up Chase Briscoe (10%), who's won in back-to-back weeks.
Outright picks: Winner predictions
Pick 1: Denny Hamlin to win (13%)
Don't overlook No. 11 pilot in pursuit of first title.
- Track Fit: Led multiple laps in five of last six visits (208 last Fall).
- Recent Form: Top 10 in nine of last 12 (six Top 5s).
- Market Value: Play to 14%.
Risk: Hasn't won since the summer.
Pick made on Saturday, Oct. 17.
Best top finish predictions
Pick 1: Kyle Larson to finish Top 3 (27%)
He's been way higher than this before.
- Track Fit: A winning ticket in three straight trips.
- Recent Form: Sixth or better in six straight.
- Market Value: I'd go to 30%.
Risk: Blaney will be tough to beat, leaves less room for error.
Pick made on Saturday, Oct. 17.
Pick 2: Josh Berry to finish Top 10 (48%)
Non-playoff driver flying under the radar.
- Track Fit: Top 10 in two of last three, wrecked last March.
- Recent Form: Cashed this prop in eight of last 11 overall.
- Market Value: 50% is the cutoff point.
Risk: Five DNFs in '26, so the floor is low.
Pick made on Saturday, Oct. 17.
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How to watch the Freeway Insurance 500
| Location: | Phoenix Raceway, Avondale, AZ |
| Date: | Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026 |
| Start time: | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA |
Check out the full weekend schedule for the 2026 Freeway Insurance 500.
Phoenix Raceway weather
The raceday high in Avondale, Arizona will be just 78 degrees, with light winds and no chance of rain. However, there is a 30% chance of rain on Saturday, which could once again impact or cancel qualifying.
Previous Freeway Insurance 500 winners
Note: The Freeway Insurance 500 (or Phoenix Fall race) was run as the season-ending NASCAR Championship Race from 2020-25.
| Year | Winner | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ryan Blaney | Ford |
| 2024 | Joey Logano | Ford |
| 2023 | Ross Chastain | Chevrolet |
| 2022 | Joey Logano | Ford |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson | Chevrolet |
Freeway Insurance 500 FAQs
When is the 2026 Freeway Insurance 500?
The Freeway Insurance 500 will go green just after 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 18.
Where will the 2026 Freeway Insurance 500 be held?
Phoenix Raceway in Avondale, Arizona, will host the Freeway Insurance 500.
Who is the 2026 Freeway Insurance 500 favorite?
Ryan Blaney is favored to win the Freeway Insurance 500.
Who won the Freeway Insurance 500 last year?
Ryan Blaney won the Phoenix Fall race in 2025.
How do Freeway Insurance 500 props work?
You can predict drivers not just to win, but also to run in the Top 3, 5, or 10.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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