The NASCAR Cup Series odds shift from the biggest track in Talladega Superspeedway to the smallest in Martinsville Speedway on Sunday, Nov. 1.
My Xfinity 500 long-shot predictions and sleeper picks and free picks highlight three drivers offering value in the penultimate race of the season, including Josh Berry.
NASCAR Xfinity 500 sleeper picks
Picks made on 10-27. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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NASCAR Xfinity 500 long-shot predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Josh Berry
Kalshi probability: 3%
Cut-off point is 4%.
Josh Berry boasts back-to-back 10th-place finishes at Martinsville, overcoming a 27th-place starting spot last Fall, and starting third while placing in both stages and leading two laps earlier this season.
Berry has hit the Top 10 in three straight short-track events with three stage placings. He's also averaging a ninth-place finish across his last three overall.
Sleeper pick to win: Ryan Preece
Kalshi probability: 3%
Also not going above 4% here.
Ryan Preece has an average finish of 9.6 over his last five Martinsville starts, recording stage points five times. He has some other short-track success to point to in 2026, running eighth and 10th at Bristol, and 10th at North Wilkesboro.
Preece recorded a 103.3 driver rating at Talladega last week while leading 23 laps, but didn't get rewarded with a 13th-place finish.
Sleeper pick to win: Austin Cindric
Kalshi probability: 3%
Play to 4%.
Austin Cindric has picked up 14 stage placings across his last 10 short-track races. He ran in the Top 10 most of the day when the Cup Series stopped at Martinsville earlier this season, posting a 104.2 driver rating in an eighth-place effort.
Cindric is not far removed from back-to-back Top 5s in these playoffs.
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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