NASCAR Cup Series odds for one of the "crown jewels," the Southern 500, are on the board ahead of Sunday, Sept. 6. It's also the first race of the 2026 playoffs, so tensions will be high at Darlington Raceway.
My Southern 500 long-shot predictions and sleeper picks believe Brad Keselowski can build on a season-best effort at Darlington from earlier this year.
Read more in my free picks for NASCAR's Labor Day weekend fixture.
NASCAR Southern 500 sleeper picks
Picks made on 9-4.
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NASCAR Southern 500 long-shot predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Ty Gibbs
Kalshi probability: 6%
Ty Gibbs ran second here in a breakout performance in May 2024. He hasn't been able to better that in four subsequent visits, but two Top 10s and four stage placings are nothing to sneeze at, nor are three driver ratings of 82+.
It's been a banner year for Gibbs, his 34th at Daytona (accident) last week notwithstanding. He picked up his first two Cup Series wins at Bristol and Iowa, both short tracks. Darlington isn't a short track, but Gibbs has been sixth or better in three straight "flat/short intermediate" events with four stage placings.
Play to 8%.
Sleeper pick to win: Brad Keselowski
Kalshi probability: 4%
Brad Keselowski may not be in the playoff chase, but he can still make his presence felt at Darlington this Sunday.
Keselowski appeared to have the winning car at "The Track Too Tough to Tame" back in March, taking both stages and leading 142 laps, but Tyler Reddick caught and passed him late. The No. 6 driver is a two-time winner here, and his driver rating in seven races at Darlington since 2023 is fourth-best.
Play to 6%.
Sleeper pick to win: Ross Chastain
Kalshi probability: 2%
It's been a forgettable year for Ross Chastain, but Darlington has been a sneaky-good track for him, and it's not like he's been devoid of speed in the season's second half. That makes him live at a big number.
Chastain wrecked the two best cars he ever had at "The Lady in Black," crashing late after winning Stage 2 in May 2022 and May 2023. He's tallied two Top 5s in six races since while finding the front twice. His 107.5 driver rating in last year's Southern 500 would represent his second-best one at any track in 2026.
The No. 1 pilot was seventh at Iowa and 12th at Richmond prior to an engine failure at New Hampshire and an unlucky run at Daytona.
Play to 4%.
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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