NASCAR Cup Series odds are on the board for Sunday's race at Charlotte Motor Speedway, the third straight 1.5-mile oval playoff event.
My Bank of America 400 long-shot predictions and sleeper picks sift through the trends we can believe in from Kansas and Las Vegas, hunting for the best available value.
See why my free picks for Sunday, Oct. 11 include William Byron.
NASCAR Bank of America 400 sleeper picks
Picks made on 10-9. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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NASCAR Bank of America 400 long-shot predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Ryan Blaney
Kalshi probability: 7%
The early money is making this race seem like it's Kyle Larson vs. the Joe Gibbs Racing trio of Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Chase Briscoe. I don't think it's that simple, and am happy to take advantage of the public overlooking Ryan Blaney to 10%.
Blaney has put together back-to-back Top 5s at Kansas and Las Vegas, leading 14 laps. His 115 driver rating at Vegas was his best since his victory at New Hampshire (136.3) on August 23.
Blaney is second in laps led in 2026 and tied for fourth in average finish. Him being seventh-choice prior to qualifying is crazy to me.
Sleeper pick to win: William Byron
Kalshi probability: 5%
William Byron is in danger of finishing the 2026 season winless, but he seems to be past a prolonged mid-season malaise. I'll take a chance on him to 6% as he looks to jump up and end his extended losing streak.
Byron has posted four straight Top 10s, including a sixth at Las Vegas and a seventh at Kansas.
Charlotte has been one of the No. 24 pilot's better tracks over the years despite his having not visited Victory Lane in the Cup Series, with three straight Top 3s to his credit prior to a ninth-place run this May. However, he started 31st on that rain-shortened evening.
Sleeper pick to win: Austin Cindric
Kalshi probability: 4%
I gave out Austin Cindric in this space last week. Although he didn't get the job done, he ran well enough to justify adding him to the card again. I'm a buyer to 5%.
Cindric owns an average finish of 7.62 across his last eight races. Two of his four Top 5 finishes of 2026 have come in the last two races, as he ran second at Kansas and fourth at Las Vegas.
The No. 2 driver wrecked in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte earlier this year, but he's in much better form now than he was then.
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