There's only three drivers alive in the NASCAR Cup Series odds heading into the Championship Race at Homestead-Miami Speedway, with Kyle Larson holding a commanding edge over Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin.
My NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race long-shot predictions and sleeper picks are looking beyond the title implications and trying to find a bomb to steal the spotlight on Sunday, Nov. 8.
See why my free picks for the season finale include A.J. Allmendinger.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race sleeper picks
Picks made on 11-3. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race long-shot predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Chase Briscoe
Kalshi probability: 9%
Chase Briscoe took a slight step back overall in his second year at Joe Gibbs Racing, but he's had a solid playoff run and is worth backing up to 11% in the season finale.
Briscoe won back-to-back postseason races last month at Las Vegas and Charlotte, two tracks very similar in profile to Homestead-Miami. The No. 19 driver came home fourth in the last Cup Series race on this oval in March of 2025.
Briscoe is seventh in laps led at intermediate/large ovals dating back to 2023.
Sleeper pick to win: William Byron
Kalshi probability: 8%
William Byron dominated at Martinsville last week, leading 362 laps for his first victory of 2026. He's playable to 10% to make it back-to-back visits to Victory Lane.
Byron is third in average rating both at Homestead-Miami and at all intermediate/large ovals since 2023. In the latter ranking, he's sandwiched between the three drivers still alive for the season title in Larson, Hamlin, and Bell.
The No. 24 pilot has picked up stage points twice in each of the last six Cup Series races here, including a Stage 2 victory in his lone win here in February 2021.
Sleeper pick to win: A.J. Allmendinger
Kalshi probability: 1%
A.J. Allmendinger is primarily known as a road-course specialist, but he's had an affinity for this left-turn-only oval over the years that makes him worth taking a flyer on up to 2%.
Allmendinger has tallied four straight Top 10s at Homestead-Miami, with three stage placings and three 90+ driver ratings.
This has all come despite no starting position better than 10th.
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