🏁NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race: Key takeaways
- Best pre-qualifying prediction: Tyler Reddick to win (10%) — In his comfort zone against the wall here.
- Best pre-qualifying value: William Byron to win (8%) — Exits dominant effort at Martinsville.
- Best pre-qualifying prop: A.J. Allmendinger Top 10 (30%) — a winning ticket in four straight at Homestead-Miami.
- Track: Tire conservation and pit stop timing are key.
- Weather: Warm with little rain and wind to speak of.
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NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race odds: Favorites & full field
Check out the full NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race field.
| Driver Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 18% |
| Denny Hamlin | 12% |
| Ryan Blaney | 12% |
| Christopher Bell | 10% |
| Tyler Reddick | 10% |
| Chase Briscoe | 9% |
| William Byron | 8% |
| Chase Elliott | 4% |
| Joey Logano | 4% |
| Ty Gibbs | 4% |
Odds as of 11-7. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race predictions (updated Saturday)
- Outright: Tyler Reddick (10%)
- Outright: William Byron (8%)
- Top 10: A.J. Allmendinger (30%)
Who's hot? Who's not?
- 🔥 Kyle Larson — Top 10 in 10 of last 12.
- ❄️ Brad Keselowski — Has gone 13 straight without a Top 10.
Track breakdown: What wins at Homestead-Miami Speedway?
- Drivers will typically face more than two seconds of lap-time fall-off on their tires during a green-flag run. This can be mitigated by gradually moving the racing line from the bottom groove to the top.
- Some crew chiefs will opt to pit very early into a cycle in an attempt to make the most of new tires while the rest of the field is on old ones, but care must be exercised not to burn the candle at both ends.
Key stats & driver profiles to target
- Twenty of the 26 races held at Homestead-Miami have been won by a driver starting in the Top 10.
- Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson are the only two active drivers with multiple wins at this track.
Drivers to watch
- Brad Keselowski leads all active drivers (min. five starts) in average starting position at Homestead-Miami (10.7).
- Hamlin started from 38th to win the 2009 race here and led 71 laps, one of the more remarkable efforts of all-time here.
Odds movement & market notes
- Kyle Larson will likely be the favorite barring a qualifying disaster as he goes for his second straight championship.
- Ty Gibbs leads the Cup Series in average starting position (9.2), so don't expect him to be at 4% on race day.
Outright picks: Winner predictions
Pick 1: Tyler Reddick to win (10%)
Looking to bookend the NASCAR season with a win.
- Track Fit: Won in '24, five Top 10s in six tries.
- Recent Form: Muddied by efforts at a short track and superspeedway, creating value.
- Market Value: Play to 12%.
Risk: Form has been inconsistent since season-opening win streak.
Pick made on Saturday, Nov. 7.
Pick 2: William Byron to win (8%)
Looking to cap the year off with a late double.
- Track Fit: Third in average rating since '23.
- Recent Form: Top 2 in two straight, six Top 10s in the postseason.
- Market Value: Cut-off point is 10%.
Risk: Just snapped a long drought at Martinsville.
Pick made on Saturday, Nov. 7.
Best top finish predictions
Pick 1: A.J. Allmendinger Top 10 (30%)
No. 16 driver has been sneaky-successful at Homestead-Miami.
- Track Fit: Four straight Top 10s on this oval.
- Recent Form: Bad, hence the price.
- Market Value: Play to 35%.
Risk: No laps led across his four Top 10s here.
Pick made on Saturday, Nov. 7.
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How to watch the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race
| Location: | Homestead-Miami Speedway, Homestead, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026 |
| Start time: | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Check out the full weekend schedule for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race.
Homestead-Miami Speedway weather
Temperatures will peak at 85 degrees on Sunday afternoon in Homestead, FL, with minimal wind and rain chances to speak of. The warm conditions could make for a slightly slicker-than-expected surface, but weather won't have much impact overall.
Previous NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race winners
Note: The Championship Race was held at Phoenix Raceway from 2020-25.
| Year | Winner | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ryan Blaney | Ford |
| 2024 | Joey Logano | Ford |
| 2023 | Ross Chastain | Chevrolet |
| 2022 | Joey Logano | Ford |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson | Chevrolet |
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race FAQs
When is the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race?
The NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race will go green just after 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 8.
Where will the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race be held?
Homestead-Miami Speedway will host the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race for the first time since 2019.
Who is the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race favorite?
Kyle Larson is favored to win the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race.
Who won the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race last year?
Ryan Blaney won this race last year, when it was held at Phoenix Raceway.
How do NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race props work?
Top 3, 5, and 10 finish props are popular ways to play NASCAR races in addition to outright win markets.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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