🏁Cook Out 400: Key takeaways
- Best pre-qualifying prediction: Joey Logano to win (11%) — a fixture at the front at Richmond.
- Best pre-qualifying value: Bubba Wallace to win (6%) — late mistake cost him a win chance here last year.
- Best pre-qualifying prop: Ryan Preece Top 10 (25%) — underrated short-track racer can produce quality effort again.
- Track: Managing tire wear as the track cools is crucial.
- Weather: As good as it gets considering the season and location.
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Cook Out 400 odds: Favorites & full field
Check out the full Cook Out 400 field.
| Driver Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 18% |
| Christopher Bell | 16% |
| Joey Logano | 11% |
| Ryan Blaney | 11% |
| Ty Gibbs | 8% |
| Kyle Larson | 7% |
| Austin Dillon | 6% |
| Bubba Wallace | 6% |
| Chase Briscoe | 5% |
| Tyler Reddick | 5% |
Odds as of 8-14. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
Cook Out 400 predictions (updated Friday)
- Outright: Joey Logano (11%)
- Outright: Bubba Wallace (6%)
- Top 10: Ryan Preece (25%)
- Top 10: Carson Hocevar (34%)
Who's hot? Who's not?
- 🔥 Ty Gibbs — Fourth or better in three of last four, with a win last week.
- ❄️ Kyle Larson — 33rd or worse in four of last five.
Track breakdown: What wins at Richmond Raceway?
- Avoiding tire falloff is key. Look for drivers to "diamond" the corners to manage tire wear.
- Expect teams to gamble and bring drivers in early in pit cycles to take advantage of fresh Goodyears.
Key stats & driver profiles to target
- Over 75% of all-time winners at Richmond have qualified Top 10.
- Richmond saw two overtime finishes in 2024. However, those were the only two since 2018.
Drivers to watch
- Chase Elliott leads all active drivers in average starting position at Richmond since 2023 (3.8).
- Denny Hamlin has led 16% of laps he's run at Richmond. The next-highest active driver is Brad Keselowski with 10%.
Odds movement & market notes
- Carson Hocevar isn't in the Top 10 prior to qualifying, but considering his average starting position in 2026 (10.7, fifth), he might be by Saturday morning.
- Austin Dillon is garnering a lot of interest due to his two-race win streak at Richmond. Assuming another poor qualifying run (21.0, 24th), expect that interest to wane on race day.
Outright picks: Winner predictions
Pick 1: Joey Logano to win (11%)
Can secure first win at Richmond since 2017.
- Track Fit: Grabbed 11 Top 10s in last 15 races here.
- Recent Form: Top 10 in three of last four.
- Market Value: 12% is the cutoff point.
Risk: Just one win in '26.
Pick made on Friday, 8-14.
Pick 2: Bubba Wallace to win (6%)
Ran too good to lose here in '25.
- Track Fit: Fourth in '24, won a stage and led 128 laps in '25.
- Recent Form: No worse than 12th at short tracks in '26.
- Market Value: Still comfortable at 8%.
Risk: No wins this season.
Pick made on Friday, 8-14.
Best top finish predictions
Pick 1: Ryan Preece to finish Top 10 (25%)
Boasts enough recent short-track success to justify a play.
- Track Fit: Qualified first in '25 and led 60 laps, but brakes issues doomed him.
- Recent Form: 12th or better in four of last five short-track races.
- Market Value: 30% is fair.
Risk: Was only 20th at Iowa last week.
Pick made on Friday, 8-14.
Pick 2: Carson Hocevar to finish Top 10 (34%)
No. 77 pilot continues to show growth.
- Track Fit: Eighth in '24, 15th in '25 with two stage placings and 12 laps led.
- Recent Form: Eighth in point standings, so week-to-week consistency is there.
- Market Value: 40% still offers value.
Risk: Has never won on a short track in the Cup Series.
Pick made on Friday, 8-14.
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How to watch the Cook Out 400
| Location: | Richmond Raceway, Richmond, VA |
| Date: | Saturday, August 15, 2026 |
| Start time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA |
Check out the full weekend schedule for the 2026 Cook Out 400.
Richmond Raceway weather
Temperatures will peak at just 82F on Saturday in Richmond, VA, and there's only a 15% chance of rain. Still, drivers and crew chiefs will have to make adjustments as the night goes on and the temps drop.
Previous Cook Out 400 winners
| Year | Winner | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Austin Dillon | Chevrolet |
| 2024 | Austin Dillon | Chevrolet |
| 2023 | Chris Buescher | Ford |
| 2022 | Kevin Harvick | Ford |
| 2021 | Martin Truex Jr. | Toyota |
Cook Out 400 FAQs
When is the 2026 Cook Out 400?
The 2026 Cook Out 400 will run at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, Aug. 15.
Where will the 2026 Cook Out 400 be held?
Richmond Raceway is the host track for the 2026 Cook Out 400.
Who is the 2026 Cook Out 400 favorite?
Denny Hamlin is favored to win the Cook Out 400
Who won the Cook Out 400 last year?
Austin Dillon won last year's edition of this race.
How do Cook Out 400 props work?
You can pick drivers to finish in the Top 3, 5, or 10 rather than first.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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