The NASCAR Cup Series drivers head to Bristol Motor Speedway this Saturday night, and I've got three Bass Pro Shops Night Race long-shot predictions and sleeper picks worth backing.
Read more in my free picks and NASCAR Cup Series odds analysis for Saturday, Sept. 19, and see why I think Alex Bowman is getting overlooked.
NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race sleeper picks
Picks made on 9-17. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race long-shot predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Chase Briscoe
Kalshi probability: 8%
Chase Briscoe is riding a four-race Top 10 streak at Bristol and at short tracks heading into Saturday night, and I'm playing him to 11%.
Briscoe took second at Richmond in his last short track appearance, leading 171 laps and placing Top 3 in both stages. He placed ninth while leading 127 laps in last year's version of this race. In his last effort at Bristol on April 12, the No. 19 driver ran Top 5 most of the day.
His accident at Gateway last week aside, Briscoe's overall form has been solid, too, running sixth or better in seven of 10 races.
Sleeper pick to win: Carson Hocevar
Kalshi probability: 4%
The arrow is pointing up again for Carson Hocevar after a brutal run to end the regular season that nearly saw him tumble out of the playoff picture. I'm comfortable playing him to 6% on Saturday night.
Hocevar has finished 11th or better in three straight at Bristol with five of a possible six stage placings and 28 laps led. The No. 77 pilot checked in 11th at Darlington two weeks ago after starting 34th, and ran eighth at Gateway last Sunday.
Hocevar is sixth in average starting position this year, so grabbing him before qualifying looks like the way to go.
Sleeper pick to win: Alex Bowman
Kalshi probability: 2%
Alex Bowman is being offered at a big price following a runner-up effort at Gateway, and I'm biting up to 4%.
Bowman's solid overall form at Bristol is obscured by a pair of DNFs, one of which was a blown engine, and the other was his first start following his battle with vertigo. Discounting those two efforts, he's hit the Top 10 in three straight here. He's led multiple laps in four of his last five starts at this oval, with five stage placings.
The No. 48 driver was 10th at Richmond in his last short-track appearance. While he's never won at Bristol at this level, he has scored at Richmond and Martinsville.
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