Portland vs New York City FC Picks and Predictions: Timbers Chopped Down at Home

The MLS Cup Final is set and will be played in one of North America's best soccer venues, at Providence Park in Oregon in front of the brilliant Timbers Army. Those relentless supporters will be backing their team, as the Portland Timbers host New York City FC in a showdown for the Philip F. Anschutz Trophy.

Saturday will be Portland's third MLS Cup Final appearance, as it looks to win its second since joining the league in 2011, while NYCFC is making their first appearance. 

Here are our soccer picks and predictions for Portland vs. New York City FC in the MLS Cup Final. 

Portland vs New York City FC match odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare MLS odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Portland vs New York City FC betting tips

• Prediction: New York City FC (+149)
• Prediction: Over 2.5 (-112)
• Best bet: Taty Castellanos anytime goal (+230)

Predictions made on 12/8/2021 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Portland vs New York City FC game info

• Location: Providence Park, Portland, OR
• Date: Saturday, December 11, 2021
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

Portland vs New York City FC betting preview

Weather

It'll be a stormy Saturday in the Pacific Northwest for the MLS Cup Final, as rain and winds upward of 20 miles per hour are forecast, with temperatures around 45 degrees Fahrenheit.

Injuries

Portland: Eryk Williamson CM (Out), Andy Polo RW (Out) Jeff Attinella GK (Out), Ismaila Jome LB (Out).
New York City FC: Anton Tinnerholm RB (Out), Keaton Parks CM (Out).

Portland vs New York City FC predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Side analysis

It was nearly the highest of highs to the lowest of lows for NYCFC. After eliminating the New England Revolution in the semifinals, ending a season for the Revs that saw them set the record for most points in a single season, NYCFC were pushed by a depleted Philadelphia Union team in an eventual 2-1 triumph.

The brief scare in Philadelphia aside, however, NYCFC have continued to perform as some expected during the playoffs — a potential MLS Cup contender hiding in plain sight. While the City Football Group team finished just fourth in the Eastern Conference, the underlying numbers were very kind to them. 

No team in MLS, not even the record-setting Revs, had a better expected goal difference per 90 than NYCFC this season, at 0.67. They finished second in MLS in xG, at 58.3, as they just underperformed in comparison (56 goals scored). As their xG indicates, they were great at creating chances, too, with the third-most shot-creating actions per 90 minutes.

Their defensive record was spectacular, too, as they conceded just 36 goals with an xG against of 35.6, which was also second-best across the league. Only New York Red Bulls allowed fewer shot-creating actions per 90 minutes, with NYCFC's opponents creating 14.47 per game.

NYCFC's comprehensive performances have continued into the postseason, too, as they've out-created opponents 3.9 to 2.0 in xG in two fairly straightforward wins and a wild semi against New England.

The regular season was not as kind to the Timbers. After a poor start, Portland won 10 of its final 14 regular season games (losing three of the other four) to vault back into the playoffs. However, its inconsistency is quite clear.

The Timbers had the eighth-lowest expected goal differential per 90 in the league this year, at -0.24. They were sunk by a dreadful defensive record yet there was room to be worse, as they conceded 52 goals but had the third-most xG against, at 58.3. Even their strong final 14 games weren't entirely encouraging, as they barely out-created opponents, 22.2 to 20.4, in xG.

While the Timbers' attack helped to salvage their season, it too performed above expectation as they scored 56 goals but had an xG of 50.3, while creating just the 15th most shots per 90 in MLS. 

These two teams have similarities. Both opened at +1,600 to win MLS Cup, were their conference's fourth seed, and knocked off the No. 1 seed on their path to the final. However, throughout the season, their was a gulf in quality between the two and it'll show Saturday as NYCFC win their first MLS Cup. 

Prediction: New York City FC (+149)

Over/Under analysis

As mentioned, Portland's defensive record is terrible. It's toward the bottom of nearly every metric, and the Timbers' expected goals against is split nearly evenly across 17 home games and 17 away, as they conceded 28.2 xG against at Providence Park at 30.0 on the road. 

With an excellent NYCFC attack making the trip to the Pacific Northwest, it's not a question of if the visitors will score, but how many times. While NYCFC could very well top the 2.5 total on their own, Portland could do its part.

An overperforming Timbers attack was considerably better at home this season. They scored an average of 2.05 goals per game at Providence Park during the regular season and had a Western Conference-high of 1.6 xG in Portland, compared to 1.2 goals per game and 1.09 xG on the road. 

While not much broke through NYCFC's strong defense this year, they were more susceptible on the road as they conceded 1.3 goals and 1.1 xG per game away from New York compared to 0.7 goals and .9 xG at home.

NYCFC should be able to score multiple goals against the hosts in the final but Portland will be a good bet to pull one back, especially if it's forced to push further forward late in the game. Expect fireworks in this year's MLS Cup Final. 

Prediction: Over 2.5 (-112)

Best bet

Taty Castellanos will return for NYCFC for the MLS Cup Final after serving a suspension, and they will need him if they're to lift the trophy on Saturday.

The 23-year-old Argentine broke out this year, winning the Golden Boot with 19 goals (he finished level with Ola Kamara but won due to Kamara's nine goals from the penalty spot). The title of the league's top scorer was rightfully his, as not only did he lead the league in goals but he had the highest goals per 90 minutes (0.62) among regular starters and led MLS in xG by a considerable margin. 

The suspension for the Eastern Conference final will have given Castellasnos a brief breather but he comes into MLS Cup Final in scorching form, with eight goals over his last six games, scoring in all six. He will get plenty of opportunities against Portland's defense to extend that scoring run, and as he has proven all season, he'll take his chance when it comes. 

Pick: Taty Castellanos anytime goal (+230)

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