The Kansas City Royals haven’t been able to stop the New York Yankees from lighting up the scoreboard.
I’m betting that doesn’t change as New York goes for the sweep, even with Kansas City handing the ball to Seth Lugo.
My Yankees vs. Royals predictions break down why the KC starter is due for some regression — and why New York is the team to make it happen.
Check out my MLB picks for this American League matchup, with first pitch at Kauffman Stadium set to go at 7:40 p.m. ET on Thursday, June 12.
Yankees vs Royals prediction
My Yankees vs Royals best bet: Yankees team total Over 4.5 (-135 at DraftKings)
Led by another historic season from Aaron Judge, the New York Yankees boast one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball.
The Bronx Bombers have certainly lived up to that moniker in this series against the Kansas City Royals. New York has plated a ridiculous 16 runs on 24 hits in the first two games of this series, and I’m betting Judge & Co. keep the production going in tonight’s finale.
While a quick look at Seth Lugo’s ERA says he might be able to put up a good fight in this one, advanced numbers show the 35-year-old has been more than a little lucky this season.
Lugo’s expected ERA sits at 5.22, nearly two whole runs higher than his standard ERA. That number ranks in the 13th percentile among MLB pitchers, while his opponent expected batting average (.289) is in the 10th percentile.
New York enters this game fifth in batting average, second in OPS, and first in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season. On top of that, the Yankees are in a groove right now, averaging 7.8 runs per game while ranking first in batting average and second in both OPS and wRC+ over the last five games.
The Bronx Bombers have scored five runs in as many consecutive games, and I'm banking on them extending that streak to six tonight.
Yankees vs Royals same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees team total Over 4.5
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBI
Vinnie Pasquantino Over 1.5 total bases
Let’s not overcomplicate this — Judge will be a part of the run production.
Judge enters tonight’s game with a ridiculous 1.296 OPS, 25 home runs, and 59 RBI. He’s also hitting .405 with a 1.476 OPS, seven home runs, and 12 RBI over his last 11.
The Royals could do some scoring of their own tonight, as the Yankees hand the ball to Will Warren, who has a 5.34 ERA this season. While Bobby Witt Jr. is the engine that makes this Kansas City offense go, Vinnie Pasquantino is on fire right now.
Pasquantino is in the middle of an 11-game hitting streak where he has a .429 average with a 1.095 OPS. He’s also hitting .300 with an .833 OPS vs. right-handed pitching this season.
Kansas City's first baseman has cashed this prop five times in his last eight games, and I like him to do it again tonight.
Yankees vs Royals odds
Yankees vs Royals live odds
Yankees vs Royals opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -125 | Kansas City +150
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+115) | Kansas City +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)
Yankees vs Royals trend
New York has hit the team total Over in its last five games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Royals.
How to watch Yankees vs Royals and game info
| Location | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri |
| Date | Thursday, 6-12-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network, YES, FanDuel Sports Network-Kansas City, SN1 |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (4-3, 5.34 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher | Seth Lugo (3-5, 3.46 ERA) |
Yankees vs Royals latest injuries
Yankees vs Royals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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