It’s a small MLB slate on Thursday, and things have been ice-cold lately—so it might be time for a little extra help to get these home runs and MLB player props back on track. I don’t usually go searching for it, but today feels like one of those days, and one matchup is drawing plenty of attention.
Along with a look at the Rockies-Diamondbacks game, I’m also eyeing slugging catcher Shea Langeliers to launch his 13th homer of the season when he faces José Soriano and a shaky Los Angeles Angels bullpen.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Thursday, May 21.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Hunter Goodman |
+447 |
 Corbin Carroll |
+445 |
 Shea Langeliers |
+350 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +10600 |
Home run pick: Hunter Goodman (+447)
Hunter Goodman is just 1-for-13 in his career against Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Eduardo Rodríguez, but at this price, there is still plenty of home-run upside today.
First, it’s a small slate, but Goodman just saw E-Rod in his last start and did rope a 101-mph single off him. The Colorado Rockies also put nine balls in play at 95+ mph against the lefty in that series. Goodman posted a .969 OPS during it as well, including a homer off Merrill Kelly. The right-handed bat also owns the fastest swing on the team over the last two weeks at 75 mph.
The familiarity factor usually isn’t priced in, which gives this HR prop more expected value with a fair price around +380. The lefty starter has also pitched above both his career fly-ball and HR/FB rates, so some long-ball regression could finally be on the way.
With colder weather rolling in and pitcher-friendly winds showing up around the league, a controlled hitting environment may be the best place to hunt dingers on a small-slate Thursday.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, Rockies.TV
Home run pick: Corbin Carroll (+445)
The Diamondbacks have a great hitting matchup today as the Rockies are rolling with call-up Zach Agnos, who hasn’t started a game this year and will hand things off early to a Colorado bullpen that owns the second-worst ERA over the last two weeks and ranks 28th in HR/FB rate over that stretch.
Corbin Carroll got the day off yesterday, but before that, he had ripped triples in back-to-back games and, three games ago, launched a pair of home runs against the Rockies and this bullpen.
It’s also nice to get a Top-10 bat sitting right at +EV with a fair price around +360. Over the last two weeks, Carroll ranks eighth in BlastContact, third in slugging, and second in ISO. On this small slate, he projects as the third-most likely player to go deep behind only Aaron Judge and Mike Trout.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, Rockies.TV
Home run pick: Shea Langeliers (+350)
Jose Soriano has fallen out of form, allowing 15 runs over his last 22 innings. The command is wavering, the double-digit strikeouts are no longer showing up, and Shea Langeliers has been a major problem for him.
The BlastContact darling has already taken Soriano deep twice in 11 at-bats while posting a 1.765 OPS in the matchup. He hasn’t had the best series so far, but getting plunked twice yesterday could provide some added motivation for a hitter sitting on 12 home runs and batting .322. Only four players have a higher slugging percentage than Langeliers this season.
The Los Angeles Angels bullpen is also capable of cashing this HR prop. It owns the second-worst ERA on the season, and that mark has been even uglier over the last two weeks (6.60). It’s extremely fly-ball heavy, and its HR/FB rate also sits in the Bottom 3 in baseball.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC Sports California, ABTV
- HR picks: 13-83, -15.94 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Hunter Goodman |
Bet Now +10600 |
| Corbin Carroll |
|
| Shea Langeliers |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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