It's a small slate Thursday, and things have been at their coldest around here of late. It's time to ask sweet Baby Jesus to bless these four-baggers and MLB player props. I don't always look for help, but today it's needed, and one game is getting a lot of attention.
The Colorado Rockies just saw lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, and the familiarity factor usually isn't priced in, while the Diamondbacks might get to tee off on a bunch of Colorado bullpen arms, and with how that stable of relievers has played over the last two weeks, the home side is going deep today.
These are my favorite home run predictions for Thursday, May 21.
Best MLB home run props today
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Hunter Goodman
Corbin Carroll
Home run pick: Hunter Goodman (+447)
Hunter Goodman is just 1-for-13 in his career against Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Eduardo Rodríguez, but at this price, there is still plenty of home-run upside today.
First, it’s a small slate, but Goodman just saw E-Rod in his last start and did rope a 101-mph single off him. The Colorado Rockies also put nine balls in play at 95+ mph against the lefty in that series. Goodman posted a .969 OPS during it as well, including a homer off Merrill Kelly. The right-handed bat also owns the fastest swing on the team over the last two weeks at 75 mph.
The familiarity factor usually isn’t priced in, which gives this HR prop more expected value with a fair price around +380. The lefty starter has also pitched above both his career fly-ball and HR/FB rates, so some long-ball regression could finally be on the way.
With colder weather rolling in and pitcher-friendly winds showing up around the league, a controlled hitting environment may be the best place to hunt dingers on a small-slate Thursday.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, Rockies.TV
Home run pick: Corbin Carroll (+445)
The Diamondbacks have a great hitting matchup today as the Rockies are rolling with call-up Zach Agnos, who hasn’t started a game this year and will hand things off early to a Colorado bullpen that owns the second-worst ERA over the last two weeks and ranks 28th in HR/FB rate over that stretch.
Corbin Carroll got the day off yesterday, but before that, he had ripped triples in back-to-back games and, three games ago, launched a pair of home runs against the Rockies and this bullpen.
It’s also nice to get a Top-10 bat sitting right at +EV with a fair price around +360. Over the last two weeks, Carroll ranks eighth in BlastContact, third in slugging, and second in ISO. On this small slate, he projects as the third-most likely player to go deep behind only Aaron Judge and Mike Trout.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, Rockies.TV
- HR picks: 13-83, -15.94 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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