It's a condensed schedule on a Thursday getaway day, but our expert MLB picks have still found a quartet of prices showing strong value at Polymarket.
See why our baseball experts love the Braves, Jays, and A's to come out victorious tonight... as well as the Mets and Nats going through the motions this afternoon.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: NYM/WAS u8.5 |
-117 |
 Jon Metler: TOR ML |
+133 |
 Neil Parker: ATL ML |
-133 |
 Joe Osborne: A's ML |
-104 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Mets/Nationals Under 8.5
Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket
Let’s hammer the getaway Under with the New York Mets heading to Miami on Friday and the Washington Nationals traveling to Atlanta tonight. The weather is working in the Under’s favor as well, with 10-mph winds blowing in, 60-degree temperatures, and some projected rain in the mix. Neither team is likely eager to grind through a getaway-day game, and we could see some quick at-bats with both clubs having all of their high-leverage bullpen arms available. THE BAT also backs the Under with a fair price of -153 and just 7.56 projected runs.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline
Price: 43¢ (+133) at Polymarket
Braydon Fisher will open for the Toronto Blue Jays, with Spencer Miles expected to handle the bulk of the innings afterward. At 43 cents, I’m more than willing to back Toronto against the New York Yankees, as I make the Blue Jays closer to 49-cent (+104) underdogs tonight. Toronto is expected to roll out a lineup featuring eight right-handed bats against Carlos Rodón, who has yet to look sharp since returning from injury, sporting a 5.63 ERA through his first two starts and still likely on a restricted pitch count. His fastball-slider combination has historically been vulnerable to right-handed power, and that issue becomes even more concerning when he isn’t at his best. The top of Toronto’s lineup, led by George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., is also very familiar with Rodón, giving the Blue Jays another edge offensively.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Braves moneyline
Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket
Atlanta Braves starter Spencer Strider has allowed a single run on just four hits, while holding opposing hitters to a pedestrian 27.3% hard-hit rate, across his past two starts, and I’m anticipating him keeping the good times rolling against a ho-hum Miami Marlins lineup. The Marlins rank 19th in wOBA against right-handed arms, and Miami also ranks 20th in both overall ISO and xwOBA over the past two weeks. Of course, Atlanta has been a force at the dish all season and sits second in both runs per game and wOBA against righties.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: A's moneyline
Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket
This is a great number on the Athletics tonight vs. an Angels team that has lost eight of its last nine games, with the offense bordering on embarrassing. Jose Soriano is crashing back to earth, allowing 12 earned runs and 24 baserunners across his three May starts, while Luis Severino’s numbers remain respectable outside of Sacramento, where he owns a 3.57 ERA. The biggest edge comes offensively, with the A's ranking fourth in OPS over the last two weeks... and the Angels sitting at 27th. LA’s bullpen has also been a disgrace, ranking 29th in both ERA and FIP during that span.
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Pirates ML | -125 |
| Read analysis in our Pirates vs. Cardinals predictions | |
| Guardians ML | +100 |
| Read analysis in our Guardians vs. Tigers predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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