The Boston Red Sox are short favorites against the New York Yankees on Sunday night, but I’m taking the plus-money side in my Yankees vs Red Sox predictions.
The matchup is good for the Yankees, and I believe they can lean into the motivation angle of not being swept by a rival.
Here are my MLB picks for June 28. Be sure to also read our Sunday Night Baseball prop picks.
Who will win Yankees vs Red Sox today: Yankees (+101)
Sonny Gray's impressive season seems unsustainable. He's still a solid pitcher, but he's outperformed his expectations in a variety of ways this season.
At some point, there will be regression. His actual ERA is over a full run lower than his expected ERA of 3.8. The New York Yankees can provide some of that regression, targeting a barrel rate that's just average at 7.3%.
Carlos Rodon is not perfect, but his 3.83 xERA, .224 xBA allowed, and 5.8% barrel rate are good enough to deliver here.
I'd play the Yankees to -110.
COVERS INTEL: Sonny Gray is allowing a 36.5% launch-angle sweet-spot rate, well above the MLB average of 33.3%
Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-125)
I’m playing the Over because Gray’s current profile does not support treating him like a shutdown arm. His .300 xBA allowed and 11.0% barrel rate create a real path for the Yankees to bounce back offensively, even without a fully healthy lineup.
Rodon has the better contact profile, but his 12.7% walk rate keeps the Boston Red Sox alive for base traffic.
At 7.5, this number does not require a blowup. It needs one starter to crack and the other offense to contribute. Play to 8.
- ML/RL bets: 31-28, +5.67 units
- Over/Under bets: 36-25, +15.77 units
Yankees vs Red Sox weather
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: Yankees +100 | Red Sox -118
- Run line: Yankees +1.5 | Red Sox -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Yankees vs Red Sox trend
The New York Yankees have hit the moneyline in 12 of their last 18 away games (+4.80 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Yankees vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Sunday, June 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC/Peacock |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Rodon (4-2, 3.70 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Sonny Gray (9-1, 2.95 ERA) |
Yankees vs Red Sox latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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