The New York Yankees are short road favorites against the Philadelphia Phillies, and I’m laying the small moneyline price.
Philadelphia is undecided who will start tonight's ballgame, while Ryan Weathers brings enough home-run risk to keep the total pointed Over.
Here are my Yankees vs Phillies predictions and MLB picks for July 25.
Who will win Yankees vs Phillies today: Yankees moneyline (-126)
The road to the majors for 32-year-old Brian Keller is admirable, but I’m fading the spot. It is unclear whether Keller will open or work as the bulk reliever, but either way, this is his first MLB appearance against a New York Yankees lineup built around power.
New York enters with an MLB-best 135 home runs, giving it a clear edge against an unproven, fastball-heavy arm likely to cover real innings. Ryan Weathers is not easy to trust, but the Yankees get the better look against an uncertain Philadelphia Phillies pitching plan.
Play this to -140.
COVERS INTEL: Ryan Weathers’ four-seamer has allowed a .678 xSLG and 55.6% hard-hit rate this season, giving Philadelphia a clear fastball damage path.
Yankees vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-131)
I'd play the Over 8.5 to -150. Both pitching setups have obvious stress points. Keller’s minor league numbers are strong, but a debuting pitcher or bullpen-bulk plan against the Yankees is still a difficult ask.
The Philadelphia Phillies have their own scoring path against Weathers, whose history against this lineup is ugly. He owns a 9.53 ERA in three career appearances against Philadelphia, and it's easy to see why.
His barrel and hard-hit rate have always been an issue, and this year is no different, with his barrel rate sitting in the bottom 9% of baseball. That's always going to be an issue against a lineup with the likes of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
Chris Hatfield's 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 39-35, +6.47 units
- Over/Under bets: 43-33, +12.32 units
Yankees vs Phillies weather
Sunny skies and slight winds blowing in toward left-centerfield tonight.
Yankees vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Yankees -121 | Phillies +109
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Phillies +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Yankees vs Phillies trend
The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.10 Units / 49% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Phillies.
How to watch Yankees vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Saturday, July 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, NBCSP |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Ryan Weathers (3-7, 4.40 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | TBD (Y-Y, X.XX ERA) |
Yankees vs Phillies latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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