Yankees vs Padres Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The Yankees can hit the ball high and far with the best of them, and New York should stay dialed in at the dish against a Padres starter in Yu Darvish that's been living a charmed life in San Diego.

Kenny Ducey - Betting Analyst at Covers
Kenny Ducey • Betting Analyst
May 24, 2024 • 15:25 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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The New York Yankees are back on track after a miniature two-game slump, taking two straight over the Seattle Mariners to head into a west-coast road trip with some confidence.

It’ll begin with the San Diego Padres on Friday, who have taken four of their last six and look to be figuring things out on the offensive side of things. Can Yu Darvish continue to deliver for San Diego, or will the Yankees finally be his undoing?

Let's dive right into it with our MLB picks and Yankees vs. Padres predictions on Friday, May 24.

Yankees vs Padres prediction

My best bet
Yankees moneyline (-115 at Caesars)

My analysis

It seems impossible, but due to a short injury layoff Yu Darvish has made six of his eight starts at home, where the San Diego Padres play in a very pitcher-friendly environment. It’s benefited him greatly, as he’s pitched to an extremely high 30.4% fly ball rate. But with his issues inducing soft contact, it would seem it’s only a matter of time before his 2.08 ERA is sent in the wrong direction.

Darvish has always had issues with allowing home runs, and his hard-hit rate has been on the rise for the past five seasons now, trending up from 34.2% all the way to 40.8% entering this outing. The combination of fly balls and hard contact is not one which breeds success, and with his strikeout rate nowhere near where it was in 2021, any issues on contact should be quite glaring.

The New York Yankees have always been a team to target in these matchups given they’ve had one of the best home run to fly ball ratios in the game for the last few seasons. They’re slugging .459 against fly-ball pitchers in 2024, and with their league-leading 10.4% barrel rate and high 41.1% hard-hit rate, they should be well-equipped to inflict some damage upon Darvish.

On the flip side, Carlos Rodon has been stellar this year with a 3.27 ERA through 10 starts. Even though his expected numbers trend a bit higher, and he’s allowed even more fly balls than Darvish, he should greatly benefit from pitching in a park which isn’t conducive to home runs against a team with just a .685 OPS playing in San Diego.

I think this will be a battle of who can do more damage on balls hit inside the park, and with the Yankees’ positive profile and recent success, I think they have to be considered the favorites by a greater margin. They’ve been fantastic in limiting strikeouts and have hit for far more power with a .224 ISO, compared to San Diego’s .110 over the last two weeks.

Yankees vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)

Yankees moneyline

Yu Darvish Under 5.5 strikeouts

Giancarlo Stanton 2+ total bases

While Darvish has had a nice little two-game run of eclipsing five strikeouts, he did so only twice in the seven previous outings he’s had. What’s more, the Braves and Dodgers have struggled to a surprising end in the strikeout department over the last month or so to present a bit a friendlier matchup for a guy with a steadily worsening strikeout rate over the years.

The Yankees are striking out just 17.6% of the time over the last two weeks and have been one of the best teams in the game in this area all season long, so I think this is a fantastic deal — one that gets better if Darvish is knocked out early as a result of the power the Yankees bring to the plate.

Then, I’m going to back Giancarlo Stanton to remain hot here. He’s hit .333 over his last 10 starts, going for multiple hits on five occasions and two or more total bases in six of them. He’s collected two hits in six at-bats against Darvish in his career with a .429 xSLG and should enjoy this matchup quite a bit.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Yankees vs Padres odds

Yankees vs Padres live odds

Yankees vs Padres opening odds

  • Run line: New York -1.5 | San Diego -1.5
  • Moneyline: New York -106 | San Diego -102
  • Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Yankees vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis

  • The Yankees opened around -124 favorites before being quickly bet down to -115, and after some slight buy-back they sit at an even -110 at some shops.
  • The total opened at 7.5, where it remains as of Friday afternoon, with some slight movement in price towards the Over.
  • DraftKings is reporting 77% of the tickets on the moneyline are on the Yankees, with 81% of the handle heading that way.
  • While 56% of the bets made on the total have come in on the Under, 72% of the cash is on the Under.

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Yankees vs Padres trend

The Yankees have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 18 games (+13.40 Units / 64% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Padres

Yankees vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date: Friday, 5-24-2024
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Yankees starting pitcher: Carlos Rodón
(5-2, 3.27 ERA)
Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
(4-1, 2.08 ERA)

Yankees vs Padres latest injuries

Yankees vs Padres weather

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