The New York Yankees picked up their third straight win — and seventh in their last nine games — by a score of 6-2 over the San Francisco Giants on Friday.
My Yankees vs. Giants predictions expect New York's offense to keep humming on June 1 against San Fran's Logan Webb, and my MLB picks break it all down for you below.
Yankees vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Yankees team total Over 3.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The New York Yankees have the best lineup in the league. That’s not up for debate at present, as they lead the league in OPS (.769), wOBA (.338), and wRC+ (122), and I think the books are giving Logan Webb too much credit.
I can see why. He’s a steady pitcher who has been terrific at Oracle Park with a 1.03 ERA. That being said, I think he’s being esteemed a bit too much against a red-hot offense.
New York has been on fire at the dish, topping the MLB in wRC+ (135) and wOBA (.356) against right-handed pitching in the last 15 days.
Juan Soto has been everything the organization could have hoped for and more, posting his best wRC+ (182) other than the shortened 2020 season (202 wRC+). Meanwhile, Aaron Judge has been a man possessed, hitting .371 with 14 home runs, 27 RBI, and a 1.415 OPS in the month of May.
Webb’s profile reveals some concerns once you take a closer look. His xERA (4.65) is nearly two full runs higher than his actual ERA (2.74) and is a full run higher than in the last three seasons.
Batters have gotten a better read on his offerings, and his hard-hit rate is up to 52.8%, which puts him in the unenviable first percentile around the MLB. That’s not the only issue — the 27-year-old ranks in the fourth percentile in xBA (.298), the sixth percentile in average exit velocity (91.4 mph), and the 11th percentile in whiff rate.
I can overlook some of these numbers in isolation, but they combine to paint a more worrisome picture than meets the eye when you glance at his surface-level numbers. He seems due for regression, and I’ll bet on that happening against the best offense in baseball.
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Yankees vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees team total Over 3.5
Juan Soto 2+ total bases
Logan Webb Over 16.5 outs
Soto is averaging 2.7 total bases in his last 10 games, so I’ll snap at the opportunity to take him at a discounted price in what’s perceived as a tough matchup. He’s just 1-for-13 in his career against Webb, but he’s too good of a hitter to stay down for long, and I see this as the time to pounce.
It may seem a bit contrarian to then add Webb to go over his Outs Recorded prop, but that’s what brings the juicy plus money odds to this SGP.
He’s exceeded this number in four of his five starts at home, and I don’t see this as antithetical to N.Y.'s TT Over — he can pitch into the seventh inning and still allow a handful of earned runs, and S.F.’s bullpen has been nothing special (4.27 ERA, 1.31 WHIP).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Giants odds
Yankees vs Giants live odds
Yankees vs Giants opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-220) | San Francisco -1.5 (+180)
- Moneyline: New York +100 | San Francisco -120
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100)
Yankees vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Giants are just 1-5 in Webb’s last six starts and have allowed more than 3.5 runs in all five losses.
- The Yankees have only hit their team total Under in 25 of 59 games this season. The Giants, meanwhile, have only hit their team total Over in 21 of their last 51 games.
- Weather always has an impact at Oracle Park and today’s should favor more scoring. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 15 to 16.1 mph blowing out to straight center.
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Yankees vs Giants trend
The Yankees have scored at least four runs in 38 of their 59 games this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Giants
Yankees vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 6-01-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Bay Area, YES |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Cody Poteet (1-0, 1.50 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Logan Webb (4-4, 2.74 ERA) |
Yankees vs Giants latest injuries
Yankees vs Giants weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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