Yankees vs Astros Picks and Predictions: One Night in Houston

The Astros are looking for revenge after somehow squandering an excellent chance at a series win over the Yankees in the Bronx last week. New York starter Luis Severino struggles against hard-hitting offenses and we like Houston to cause problems.

Chris Hatfield - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Chris Hatfield • Betting Analyst
Jun 30, 2022 • 12:49 ET • 4 min read
Kyle Tucker Houston Astros MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees and Houston Astros meet tonight for a rare one-game matchup at Minute Maid Park. 

The Yankees have won four straight and just split a four-game series with Houston last week. Earlier this week, they became the fifth team in the live-ball era to win 55 of their first 75 games.

The Astros are hot as well. They followed up the Yankees split with a two-game sweep of the Mets. They are now 47-27 on the season and have a commanding lead in the AL West.

Who will grab this standalone rivalry game? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Thursday, June 30, 2022.

Yankees vs Astros odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Yankees opened up as slight favorites at -115. However, the odds haven't moved much from there, with the Astros available around +105.

The total opened up at 8.5 and has dropped an entire run to 7.5 by the time of this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Yankees vs Astros predictions

Picks made on 6/30/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Yankees vs Astros game info

Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Date: Thursday, June 30, 2022
First pitch: 6:10 p.m. ET
TV: YES, AT&T SportsNet Southwest

Yankees vs Astros betting preview

Starting pitchers

Luis Severino (4-2, 3.38 ERA): It's been a good season for Severino, with his xERA among the Top 10% of the league's pitchers. In June, he's pitched 24 innings and surrendered nine earned runs. That said, he's not immune to being banged up from time to time. In addition, his hard-hit rate is around league average and can be exposed when he sees bigger bats. Two games ago, he saw those big bats in the Toronto Blue Jays and gave up five earned runs in five innings. 

Luis Garcia (5-5, 3.68 ERA):  Garcia's numbers are just slightly more underwhelming. His barrel rate is among the bottom of the league among quality pitchers and is an issue against big bats. The Blue Jays got Garcia for five earned runs through six innings recently, and the Boston Red Sox followed it up a few weeks later for five earned runs. However, Garcia has been solid in June, allowing seven earned runs in 27 innings.


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Key injuries

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Betting trend to know

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Yankees vs Astros picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Today we have a reasonably even pitching showdown that forces us to look a little deeper at the matchup. 

As an underdog, the Astros are 10-3 on the season on the run line. You must carefully pick which trends to follow in baseball, but I believe this one is worthwhile. It speaks to the market and oddsmakers are routinely undervaluing the Astros. I think it holds some weight here, but it feels impossible for me to pick a side. 

Away from the trends, you'll see that both pitchers are reasonably hittable. The low ERAs are more of a product of them dominating some of baseball's average to below-average teams than actual substance. That makes me want to lean on the more consistent offense over the last 30 days. It may sound crazy, but that hasn't been the Yankees, at least from a consistency perspective. 

They had 14 consecutive innings of being shut out against the Astros. They scored two runs against the Athletics a few games ago when they were projected to score around five. Even though they've been winning, they've had the looks of a team on cruise control. It hasn't hurt them in the W/L column because they are just that good, but it doesn't mean it won't eventually. They haven't scored a single run after the fourth inning in back-to-back games. 

I expect both of these offenses to have decent success scoring, but there's just something about the Yankees that I'd like to key on. They look ready for a bit of a break — the sleepwalking throughout portions of the game shows that. Because I genuinely don't see much of an edge on this game, I have to pass on the moneyline. Instead, let's find a creative market to take advantage of the handicap above. 

I'll take the Yankees not score in the 4th and 5th innings. This is something they didn't do once in the Bronx against Houston and a feat they've only accomplished once in their last seven games. 

Prediction: SGP - Yankees score 0 runs in 4th + 5th innings (-125 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

This total feels a tick too short so I'm rolling with the Over, but I will more confidently target the team totals as I see more of an edge on that market.

Both starting pitchers have issues with two things: barrel rate and hard-hit rate. That's problematic when facing opponents that have built themselves around hitting the ball far and hard. 

Severino's peripherals have been a bit better than Garcia's, but he has much of the same problem. When he last faced Houston, he gave up three earned runs on five hits. It certainly felt like that number could have been closer to four or five, though. The Astros hit the ball pretty hard and were the victim of some bad luck.

Severino's last outing against a team ranking in the Top 10 in both barrel and hard-hit rates came against Toronto and the Blue Jays tagged him for five earned runs. Another one came against the Orioles; they also got him for five earned runs. How about this nugget? Severino has given up at least five earned runs when facing teams twice that rank in the Top 10 of barrel rate and hard-hit rate. I expect the Astros to keep that trend going. 

My projections have Severino giving up over 1.5 runs around 60% of the time. So I'm going to target the first five markets because of that.

Prediction: Astros first five innings team total Over 1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Best bet

We will make this a simple handicap and follow the above analysis. I see no reason why Severino's struggles with big bats won't continue. He's a fine pitcher, and I expect him to avoid a blowup on the mound. However, this number is too short.

The Astros will be itching to get one from the Yankees at home, especially after how the last game went between these two. That, plus the advantage of the matchup, makes this my Best Bet. 

PickAstros first five innings team total Over 1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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