Braves vs Phillies Picks and Predictions: No Brotherly Love Lost in Philly

The Philadelphia Phillies need to stop the bleeding with Bryce Harper sidelined and ace Aaron Nola is just the guy to do it. In addition to salvaging a win in this series against Atlanta, Nola should have his strikeout pitch working to clear his K prop.

John Reger - Contributor at
John Reger • Contributor
Jun 30, 2022 • 12:14 ET • 4 min read
Aaron Nola Philadelphia Phillies MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves have won the first two games of the three-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies. Wednesday, they won, 4-1 behind a three-hit performance by Kyle Wright, who allowed just one run. 

The Phillies are trying to stay in the playoff race, but have slipped to five games behind the Braves for second place in the National League East. Aaron Nola gets the start to try and avoid being swept. 

Can the Braves win three in a row or will Nola lead the Phillies away from a sweep? Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Braves vs Phillies on June 30.

Braves vs Phillies odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Both teams opened at -110 but the Phillies went as low as -141, though DraftKings has them at -135. Meanwhile, the Braves have moved to as high at +129. The total has stayed at 8.5 with the Over at -106 and the Under at -110.  

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Braves vs Phillies predictions

Picks made on 6/30/2022 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Braves vs Phillies game info

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Date: Thursday, June 30, 2022
First pitch: 6:05 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports South, NBC Sports Philadelphia

Braves vs Phillies betting preview

Starting pitchers

Ian Anderson (6-4, 4.60 ERA): The 24-year-old right-hander had a rough outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers last Friday at home, but he might have a good excuse for giving up four runs on six hits in four innings. It was the return of former teammate Freddie Freeman to Atlanta and he got a standing ovation in the first inning that Anderson claimed threw off his rhythm. In the four other appearances in June, Anderson has allowed a combined 11 runs on 25 hits and has picked up three victories. 

Aaron Nola (4-5, 2.98 ERA): Nola is another pitcher who dropped his last start but has been nothing short of brilliant in June. He faced the San Diego Padres last Friday and pitched seven innings, allowing one run on seven hits. One of the hits was a game-winning single by his older brother Austin. In his other four starts, the 29-year-old righty has allowed a combined eight runs and 20 hits. 


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Betting trend to know

The Phillies are 6-1 in their last seven of Game 3s of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies

Braves vs Phillies picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Run line analysis

The Philadelphia Phillies have been like a rudderless ship since the injury to Bryce Harper, losing two of three since he was hit on the thumb on the weekend. Harper had surgery and be out until at least the middle of August.

Other players are going to have to pick up the slack in Harper’s absence, and if it doesn't come cohesively on the offensive side of the ball it will have to come from the pitching staff.

Pitcher Aaron Nola might be the savior the Phillies need. The right-hander gets the start on Thursday and has been brilliant in June. He has five starts for the month and other than five runs allowed to the San Francisco Giants, he has been shutting down opposing teams. 

Besides the Giants game, which he still won, Nola has allowed three total runs in four games. He has gone seven-plus innings in those games as well, allowing a combined 22 hits. 

Nola has to watch out for the Braves' home-run power, though, as Atlanta is second in the majors with 113 long balls, 13 behind the New York Yankees. 

The righty has done a fine job at limiting the deep ball in recent outings, allowing just one home run in June. 

This isn’t the first time Nola has faced the Braves this year. He started against them on May 26 and pitched 8 1-3 innings, allowing just one run on five hits, as the team won 4-1. We like Nola to limit the damage at the dish and for the Phils to pull away by a couple of runs by the end of tonight's action.

Prediction: Phillies -1.5 (+140 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

Both pitchers in Wednesday’s game have been limiting opponents well in June, but Nola has done it consistently against quality opponents, while Anderson’s success has been against teams with records under .500. 

Since allowing five runs to the Giants on June 1, Nola has surrendered a total of three earned runs in 30 innings across four starts, including eight innings of shutout ball vs. the Brewers and, more recently, allowing one run over seven strong against the Padres.

Anderson has won three games in June but has been more inconsistent on the whole compared to Nola. He blanked the Cubs over 6 2-3 innings and held the A's to two runs over six strong earlier in June. His other three starts this month haven't been as impressive, allowing four or more earned to the Dodgers, Nationals, and Rockies. He could help send this all the way to the Over on his own.

The trends favor the Over as well. For the Phillies, the Over is 5-1 in the team’s last six home games, as well as 5-1 in their last six home games against a right-handed starter. 

The Over is also 12-4 in the team’s last 16 against a team with a winning record. 

For the Braves, the Over is 6-2 in the team’s last eight road games, as well as 5-2 in their last seven games against a right-handed starter. 

Prediction: Over 8.5 (-115 at BetRivers)

Best bet

Aaron Nola likes striking out batters and the Braves strike out A LOT. His strikeout total for tonight is set at 7.5 and I like the Over. 

Nola is fifth in the majors in strikeouts with 109, averaging 1.13 punchouts an inning. He tallied 10 in his last game against the San Diego Padres and also reached double-digit Ks when he faced the Braves in May. His propensity to go deep into games — he's finished six innings in 10 of his last 11 games — also bodes well for his chances to rack them up.

The Braves are second in the league in strikeouts with 720, averaging 9.47 a game. 

Look for the Braves to reach their average and this prop bet to hit easily. 

Pick: Aaron Nola Over 7.5 strikeouts (-105) 

MLB parlays

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