The Atlanta Braves are currently up 2-1 in the World Series against the Astros. Last night it was rainy and windy, giving pitchers the edge for once this postseason.
Tonight, pitching might not look as good again. The Braves will use an opener, which will likely be Jesse Chavez. Meanwhile, the Astros will send out veteran pitcher Zack Greinke, who is way past his prime.
Here are some MLB props to consider before tonight’s game between the Astros and Braves in the World Series, Game 4.
Astros vs Braves prop picks
- Most Hits Albies vs Alvarez, Alvarez (-120)
- Rosario Under .5 Strikeouts (-105)
- Braves to Score First and Win (+175)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Astros vs Braves Game 4 props
Hit 'em up
As of writing, it’s still unclear who will start for the Braves. However, if Yordan Alvarez gets the chance to face some righties, he’ll be in good shape. Alvarez is hitting a .367 ISO and wOBA of .493 with 50 percent line drives and just 10 percent ground balls in his last 37 plate appearances against righties.
Meanwhile, in that same time span, Ozzie Albies is hitting a .146 ISO with a wOBA of .284.
I like Alvarez to earn more hits than Albies in this one. Obviously, if both get one hit, for example, it’s a push, and you get your money back.
PICK: Most Hits Albies vs Alvarez, Alvarez (-120 at DraftKings)
Not Striking Twice
Eddie Rosario took a strikeout to start the game last night on a borderline check swing that probably could’ve gone either way. Despite that strikeout, Rosario is still striking out just 9.6 percent of the time in the last 30 days against right-handed pitching.
Rosario has a .271 ISO, a wOBA of .442 and is walking 7.7 percent of the time. He’s going up against Zack Greinke, who is striking out just 16.7 percent of batters and 7.7 percent of lefties in the last 30 days.
PICK: Eddie Rosario Under .5 Strikeouts (-105 at DraftKings)
The Braves have hit Greinke well throughout his career. Atlanta’s roster has gone 31-for-118 with a .266 average and .738 OPS. Joc Pederson has two home runs against Greinke while Eddie Rosario and Travis d’Arnaud each have one.
What I’m trying to say here is that the Braves have potential against Greinke. The veteran right-hander has already allowed two runs in 2.1 innings in the postseason and hasn’t pitched more than 1.1 innings in an appearance in the playoffs.
The Astros surely hope Greinke goes deeper than this, but there’s a good chance Greinke gives up the first run of the game. The opener will likely be Jesse Chavez for the Braves, who has an xFIP under 4 in the last 30 days while Greinke has an xFIP of 4.41 with low strikeouts and high walks.
If you think the Braves can win this game and don’t want to pay the pick-em price, take them to score first and then sit on a Braves moneyline at +175 when they do.
PICK: Braves to Score First and Win (+175 at DraftKings)
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