The Boston Red Sox opened their series against the Chicago White Sox with a much-needed win. They’ll attempt to get another Saturday night as they look to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
Although I expect the Red Sox to take care of business, my White Sox vs. Red Sox predictions see more value in backing one of their star bats to do damage at the plate.
Let’s dive into why with my Saturday, September 7 MLB picks.
White Sox vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-130 at bet365)
My analysis
Rafael Devers has been an HRR monster this season, particularly when playing at Fenway Park. He’s cleared this line in 36 of 61 home games, good for a 59% hit rate.
I expect his home success to continue against a historically bad Chicago White Sox team. Garrett Crochet was lights-out to start the year, but his play has tailed off significantly.
Crochet’s posted a .340 xwOBA since August 1, which is well above league average. Even more concerning is the hard contact he’s given up. Crochet has allowed a 20.5% barrel rate over five starts in that span, nearly triple the MLB average.
He’s giving up plenty of hits, a ton of hard contact, and not pitching deep into games like earlier in the year. In fact, Crochet hasn’t completed more than four innings in over two months.
Even if Crochet regains some of his early-season form, he’s not going to last long in this game due to workload management. When he departs, Devers can look forward to multiple plate appearances against a putrid bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA and WHIP on the season.
What I love about Devers in this spot — besides facing a struggling starter and a horrendous bullpen — is that there should be plenty of traffic on base in front of him.
Jarren Duran is a hit machine, while Rob Refsnyder and Tyler O’Neill are both hitting .285 or better vs. lefties this season. There should often be a runner or two on for Devers and one well-timed single would be enough to get the job done.
White Sox vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Jarren Duran Over 0.5 hits
Red Sox moneyline
The White Sox are sending a spiralling arm to the mound, and they have next to no quality in their bullpen. This is a great spot for Boston’s offense to make noise, and I like targeting their two best hitters.
Duran has at least one hit in 75% of his games this season. He didn’t find a way to get one in the series opener, and, statistically speaking, it’s unlikely that happens again — especially in a mouthwatering matchup.
The Red Sox are still fighting to climb their way back into the Wild Card race. They should have little problem getting a win against a team that’s won just 22% of its games this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
White Sox vs Red Sox odds
White Sox vs Red Sox live odds
White Sox vs Red Sox opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago +170 | Boston -205
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-120) | Boston -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-115) | Under 9.0 (-105)
White Sox vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Boston Red Sox opened up -205 favorites on the moneyline at bet365. We’ve seen very slight movement towards the White Sox, with the Red Sox now sitting at -200 to win the game.
- The market has shifted in the direction of the Under. Initially you could get a -105 price on the Under of 9.0 runs. That’s the current price for Under 8.5 at bet365.
- The Red Sox have covered the run line in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- The White Sox have only covered the run line in 53 of their last 137 games (-37.35 Units / -23% ROI)
White Sox vs Red Sox trend
Rafael Devers has recorded two or more hits + runs + RBI in 19 of his past 30 home games (63%), averaging 2.9 per game in that time. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Red Sox.
White Sox vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| White Sox starting pitcher: | Garrett Crochet (7-10, 3.61 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Cooper Criswell (5-4, 4.14 ERA) |
White Sox vs Red Sox latest injuries
White Sox vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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