The schedule has not been kind to the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox.
After a doubleheader Sunday, in which the White Sox took both games of the twin billing, the teams are right back at it Monday morning for the series finale on Patriots' Day at 11:10 a.m. ET. As if that wasn't tough enough, this game is primed to be a pitchers' duel with Chicago ace Lucas Giolito and Boston fireballer Nathan Eovaldi on the mound.
Here are our free MLB betting picks and predictions for White Sox vs. Red Sox on April 19.
White Sox vs Red Sox odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonChicago opened -116 at FanDuel, peaked at -134 this morning and is back at -116 as of 10:30 a.m. ET. The White Sox are attracting 57 percent of moneyline bets and 60 percent of moneyline dollars. The total opened at 8 (Over -120) and is now 7.5 (Over -120), with the Under landing 57 percent of bets/59 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameWhite Sox vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Lucas Giolito (1-0, 2.55 ERA): The White Sox ace is coming off his best start of the season, as he went toe-to-toe with 2020 AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber in a matchup that lived up to the hype. Giolito threw seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball and punched out eight batters in an eventual 2-0 extra-inning loss. He has struck out at least eight in all three of his outings and sports the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career at 5.20. The right-hander has allowed just one homer but will run into a team that's been punishing the ball and will have the tough task of shutting down Boston's red-hot offense in the cozy confines of Fenway Park.
Nathan Eovaldi (2-1, 2.08 ERA): The big righty is off to a strong start himself, allowing two runs or fewer in each of his three outings. Eovaldi is still throwing upper-90s gas and has rediscovered his slider to add a deep repertoire, and he has the highest groundball rate of his career at 63.8 percent, which is the top mark in the AL. Injuries have always been a concern and the results have never quite matched his stuff, but Eovaldi is dangerous when he's on.
Weather
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Key injuries
White Sox: Adam Engel OF (Out), Billy Hamilton OF (Out).
Red Sox: None.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in Giolito's last four starts against a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Red Sox.
Moneyline pick
A big preseason darling to come out of the AL, the White Sox have had a bit of a frustrating start to the season at 8-8. But there's plenty of reason for optimism if you look past their record.
Chicago has the second-best run differential in the AL behind only the Red Sox and has been on the wrong end of some close games. The White Sox have lost twice in extras and three other defeats have been by two runs or fewer. They have a deep and complete team — they're eighth in offensive WAR and second in pitching WAR, per FanGraphs — and should start rolling soon, despite injuries to key players Eloy Jimenez and Lance Lynn, who was placed on the injured list Sunday with a strained right trapezius.
After sweeping Sunday's doubleheader, the ChiSox have a chance to take three of four from the AL East's first-place Red Sox with their ace on the mound. Chicago will then embark on a soft nine-game homestand that begins with series against the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers. Look for the White Sox to start piling up the wins.
But Monday's game won't be easy with the way the Red Sox have been swinging it and how well Eovaldi has been to start the season. Boston leads the AL in runs scored, batting average, slugging, and OPS, and reeled off nine straight wins after getting swept by the Baltimore Orioles to start the season. Although Xander Bogaerts has yet to go deep, the star shortstop is batting .386 and is among the AL's Top 10 leaders in on-base percentage, alongside teammate J.D. Martinez.
Chicago can keep up offensively, though, and Giolito is a beast who should have his name in the Cy Young conversation throughout the entire season. We'll side with the White Sox, as the club's No. 1 arm will be the difference in this game.
PREDICTION: White Sox (-115)
Over/Under pick
The two starters have allowed a combined nine runs over six starts and 35 innings. In other words, runs should be hard to come by in the last contest of this four-game set.
While Eovaldi certainly comes with some blow-up potential, he's only allowed more than three runs in two of his last 12 starts dating back to last year. His increased strikeout rate from 2020 hasn't translated over to this season yet, but he's yet to be burned by the long ball and has good control. If the groundball rate is for real, it's only going to help Eovaldi suppress runs and could be what helps him take the next step at 31 years old.
Giolito, on the other hand, is as close to a safe bet as it comes. He's typically good for at least six innings of limited damage. He's allowed more than three earned runs in just two of his last 15 starts going back to last season and his swing-and-miss stuff can silence any lineup. It's still early, but Giolito has a career-high strikeout rate and his lowest walk rate since he made seven starts in his first year with the White Sox in 2017.
It's a start time the pitchers won't be used to, but they should have the advantage over the batters in this one, as many hitters in these lineups will be playing for the third time in under a 24-hour span.
Count on the starters to continue rolling and keep runs off the board.
PREDICTION: Under 8.0 (-110)
White Sox vs Red Sox betting card
- White Sox (-115)
- Under 8.0 (-110)
Picks made 04/18/2021 at 8:45 p.m. ET.
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