Brewers vs Padres Picks: SD Arms Keep Brew Crew Bats Cold

Apr 19, 2021 |
By: Chris Toman
Brewers vs Padres Picks: SD Arms Keep Brew Crew Bats Cold
Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove is two starts removed from throwing the first no-hitter in club history and takes a 0.47 ERA, the second-best mark in the NL, into the series opener.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove is two starts removed from throwing the first no-hitter in club history and takes a 0.47 ERA, the second-best mark in the NL, into the series opener.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It's a lighter day of MLB betting on Monday with just seven games scheduled, including the series opener between the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres. 

The Padres are fresh off an entertaining series with the division-rival Los Angeles Dodgers and avoided a three-game sweep with a 5-2 win Sunday, while the banged-up Brewers dropped two of three to the Pittsburgh Pirates. In what should be a great pitching matchup at Petco Park, hard-throwing righty Brandon Woodruff will toe the rubber against Joe Musgrove, who's off to a sensational start in his first year in San Diego.

Here are our best free picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Padres on April 19, with first pitch set for 10:10 p.m. ET.

Brewers vs Padres odds

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MLB sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

San Diego went up as a -152 favorite Sunday night at FanDuel, bottomed out at -146, peaked at -174 and is -172 as of 7 p.m. ET. Moneyline ticket count is 3/1 and moneyline cash almost 4/1 on the Padres. The total opened at 7 (Over -120) and is now 6.5 (Under -112), with 70 percent of tickets/59 percent of dollars on the Under.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Brewers vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Brandon Woodruff (0-0, 2.12 ERA): The big righty has formed a strong one-two punch alongside ace Corbin Burnes at the top of the Brewers' rotation. Woodruff comes in with some sparkling numbers through three starts, highlighted by his 0.76 WHIP. He's punching out 10 batters per nine innings, has a career-best 6.33 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and has yet to allow a homer. The combination of lots of strikeouts, very few walks, and no home runs leads to a 1.57 FIP, the seventh-best mark in the majors. Woodruff has fantastic breaking stuff and his bread-and-butter heater places him among the Top 10 starters in average fastball velocity at 96.8 mph. 

Joe Musgrove (2-1, 0.47 ERA): In a rotation that has stars Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, it's been Musgrove who is stealing the headlines. The 28-year-old ranks second in the majors in ERA and WHIP, both at 0.47, and now has a no-hitter on his resume after dominating the Texas Rangers back on April 9. Musgrove is throwing harder than ever before and has one of the most valuable sliders in baseball (according to pitch tracking info at FanGraphs), which has led to him striking out 35.8 percent of the batters he's faced, good for the sixth-best mark in the National League. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Brewers: Christian Yelich OF (Out), Lorenzo Cain OF (Out), Kolten Wong 2B (Out).
Padres: Trent Grisham OF (Questionable), Austin Nola C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 8-1 in the Padres' last nine home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Padres.

Runline pick

The Brewers will want their last series back. They lost by five runs in the series opener and were on the wrong end of an extra-inning defeat on Sunday to drop two of three to a team that’s widely considered to be the NL's worst.

That ended their seven-game homestand with a losing record, which is not what you want before departing to the west coast for a difficult three-game set with the Padres. The Brew Crew have scored two runs or fewer in three of their last six and will begin this series against a pitcher who is two starts removed from a no-hitter. 

Musgrove wasn’t the Padres’ biggest offseason acquisition, but so far he’s been their best. He’s allowed one run all season and has a ridiculous 12.0 strikeout-to-walk rate. He’s certainly had a soft schedule through three starts but that’s not changing today. The right-hander is set up nicely to continue his 2021 dominance against an injury-riddled lineup that’s without its best player. 

After a tough series against the juggernaut Dodgers, in which the Padres had to face Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, and Trevor Bauer, they’re going to be tested again with Woodruff and then Corbin Burnes following him Tuesday. 

As good as Woodruff has been, though, Milwaukee’s offense is too weak to ignore and the value on the runline is too juicy to pass up. It might not be a slugfest, but the better team should take the first game of this series and we’re expecting it to be by multiple runs. 

PREDICTION: San Diego -1.5 (+150)

Over/Under pick

The Brewers’ offense is in shambles and they're going to continue struggling at the dish without three hitters from their Opening Day lineup, highlighted by 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich, who joins Kolten Wong and Lorenzo Cain on the injured list.

Milwaukee ranks dead last in the NL in slugging and OPS and 28th in the majors with a .209 average. Facing San Diego’s pitching, which ranks first in ERA and WHIP,  won’t do it any favors, either. The Padres' staff is third in the majors in strikeout percentage, while the Brewers' bats are getting punched out at the third-highest rate in the NL. Musgrove has fanned eight, 10, and then six in three starts and this looks like another big K spot for him.

Musgrove has always had breakout potential and he’s delivering on that, and once Milwaukee’s done with him it will have to deal with a bullpen that’s first in the NL with a 2.43 ERA. The Brewers don’t have enough offensive weapons to be excited about in this one.

But Milwaukee can counter that strong pitching and is going to throw good arms at the Padres, too, as the Brewers rank fifth in baseball in ERA, third in WHIP, and first in batting average against.

San Diego has a potent offense that will be the difference in this game — Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer have been obliterating the baseball, Manny Machado has been great, and superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. is back from injury — but Woodruff will make things difficult for as long as he’s on the mound.

While we expect the Under to start cashing in a lot more Brewers games and don't foresee many runs being scored against these strong pitching staffs, the total is simply too low at 6.5 to recommend anything but the Over. 

PREDICTION: Over 6.5 (-115)

Brewers vs Padres betting card

  • San Diego -1.5 (+150)
  • Over 6.5 (-115)

Picks made 04/19/2021 at 10:05 a.m. ET.

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