The Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros will play the third and final game of their three-game set Wednesday at Minute Maid Park.
The Tigers have taken both of the first two games picking up wins with MLB betting odds of +225 and +165 along the way. They'll look for more of the same in the finale, as oddsmakers have the Astros as a heavy -220 favorite with the total opening at 9 and shaded to the Under.
Here are our free MLB picks and predictions for Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros on Wednesday, April 13 (7:10 p.m. ET).
Tigers vs Astros odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonTwinSpires opened Houston a healthy -240 favorite, and the moneyline is out to -250 as of 4:15 p.m. ET. The Tigers are taking 55 percent of tickets, while the Astros are landing 68 percent of money. The total bounced between the opener of 9 and 8.5 a couple of times and is currently 9 shaded toward the Under, with 55 percent of tickets and 63 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameTigers vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Michael Fulmer (0-0, 2.57 ERA): Fulmer will be making his first start of the season after three separate appearances out of the bullpen. The right-hander didn’t make the starting rotation out of spring training but will get a crack thanks to the injury to Julio Tehran. Fulmer pitched to an 8.57 ERA over 10 starts last season but has looked good in relief this year.
Lance McCullers Jr. (1-0, 1.80 ERA): McCullers has made two starts—both against Oakland—and surrendered just four hits over his 10 innings. The righty has walked six in that stretch as well but has been almost unhittable, holding opponents to a .118 batting average.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Tigers: Miguel Cabrera 1B (Out), Spencer Turnbull SP (Out), Julio Tehran SP (Out), Rony Garcia RP (Out).
Astros: Josh James RP (Out), Pedro Baez RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in Lance McCullers’ last four home starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Astros.
Moneyline pick
After a hot 6-1 SU start to the season, the Astros have stumbled of late having lost four in a row. They lost as -250 favorites with their ace Zack Greinke on the mound Monday and again yesterday as the offense has struggled to give any support. These results show us that underdogs are live plays when books overvalue certain matchups: Dogs are hitting at 47.5 percent on the season while away teams are an even 50 percent SU.
The hot Houston bats have cooled off and are a big reason for the losing skid. Over the four-game losing stretch, Houston has managed just nine total runs—and hasn’t had to face any elite starting pitching either. On Wednesday, they face a motivated Michael Fulmer who has allowed just four hits and zero walks across seven innings out of the bullpen. Fulmer was brutal last year but still has a pair of sub-4.00 ERA seasons over his five-season MLB career.
The no-name line-up of the Tigers has surprised some this year and has an isolated power (ISO) equal to the Angels. They have also been fueled by the magical, albeit unsustainable, run that Akil Baddoo is on.
Baddoo has never played above High-A and is slashing .391/.400/1.043 in his first year in the bigs. The outfielder bats eighth and has done a great job at turning the order over. If Baddoo can take Greinke deep, McCullers and his poor early-season location could be the next victim. Baddoo is 4 for 7 in the series with a pair of homers and 11 total bases.
Ultimately, it comes down to price. If Houston were -110, we’d no doubt ride the cheaters, but with Detroit getting no respect and paying +200, we’re taking the value with the dog on Wednesday night.
If you think that Houston can’t possibly lose three straight to the Tigers, who are on a get-away game, the Detroit runline of +1.5 is still a tasty +105
PREDICTION: Detroit (+200)
Over/Under pick
The Tigers may have a little pop in the lineup but they’re hitting just .211 as a team this season, which ranks 25th in baseball. The Detroit run production is also in the Bottom-10 at 3.55 per game and facing a legit starter in McCullers, we don’t expect it to run up the score despite staying competitive.
The Houston offense will have to deal with one of Detroit’s many surprising pitchers this year in Fulmer. Even though he lost his starting rotation spot out of spring, he has been lights-out when called upon allowing just two runs, four hits and zero walks to go along with 10 Ks in seven innings of work. He's a starting pitcher by nature and will be looking to impress to earn his spot back in the rotation.
The Detroit starter should also be able to hit the 75-85 pitch mark after throwing 68 in his last four innings of relief four days ago. Keeping Fulmer in the game is a huge X-factor for the total as the Tigers’ bullpen has the highest ERA in the league at 7.26. That number isn’t as bad as it seems, however, as a couple of blowouts have skewed it.
Minute Maid Park is a fairly neutral barn in terms of MLB park factors but it is pitcher-friendly when it comes to doubles as it has the sixth-worst park for hitters and two-baggers.
Detroit has been a profitable Under team this season at 4-7 O/U and we’re riding that trend on Wednesday, as well.
PREDICTION: Under 9 (-110)
Tigers vs Astros betting card
- Detroit (+200)
- Under 9 (-110)
Picks made on 4/14/2021 at 8:56 a.m. ET
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