Another day, another war between our analysts.
In addition to a pair of run-line selections, our MLB expert picks for Tuesday, Sept. 15, feature both sides of the Chicago White Sox-Cleveland Guardians game tonight. Jon Metler is high on the Guardians, while Neil Parker is backing the Pale Hose.
See how it all shakes out in our MLB picks below.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Jon Metler: CLE ML |
55% |
 Neil Parker: CHW ML |
42% |
 Joe Osborne: LAD -1.5 |
58% |
 Dustin Saracini: PHI -1.5 |
54% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Jon Metler's expert pick: Guardians moneyline
Price: 55¢ at Polymarket
I'm backing the Cleveland Guardians at 55%, as I make them closer to a 59% favorite against the Chicago White Sox in this crucial AL Central clash.
This is a difficult matchup for White Sox starter Davis Martin. His primary strikeout weapons are his slider and curveball, and the Guardians will likely stack the lineup with eight left-handed bats, putting those breaking pitches in the hitting zone of several favorable matchups.
Martin doesn't have an overpowering four-seam fastball and instead relies heavily on his sinker. The problem is that hitters like Jose Ramírez and Chase DeLauter have excellent contact skills and can spoil that pitch, forcing Martin to turn to his four-seamer and challenge Cleveland in the strike zone. That's an advantage for the Guardians, which is why I'm comfortable buying them at 55%.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: CHSN, Guardians.TV
Neil Parker's expert pick: White Sox moneyline
Price: 42¢ at Polymarket
I’m bullish on the Chicago White Sox moneyline to 45% because they’re tied for second in wOBA against lefties since the All-Star break, and Cleveland Guardians starter Foster Griffin has struggled since joining the club.
Griffin sports a 5.18 xERA and 4.33 xFIP while allowing a healthy 35.8% hard-hit rate through his seven starts with Cleveland, and Chicago is also in solid offensive form.
The White Sox rank eighth in xwOBA across the past 30 days, while the Guardians check in 25th. Additionally, Chicago ranks 28th in BABIP despite sitting ninth in blast-contact percentage during the stretch, so the Pale Hose are set for a splash of statistical correction with the wind blowing out at Progressive Field tonight.
See Neil's full breakdown of the action in his White Sox vs. Guardians predictions.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: CHSN, Guardians.TV
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Dodgers -1.5
Price: 58¢ at Polymarket
Some might consider this a hefty price to pay for a run-line favorite on the road, but we have an avalanche of evidence to support the surging Los Angeles Dodgers, who've won nine of their last 11 games.
Expect them to tee off on Rhett Lowder after smacking him around for seven runs last week, then feast on a bullpen with a 6.10 ERA this month.
On the other side, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a 1.94 road ERA and just held the Cincinnati Reds to one run off three hits with 10 strikeouts.
The Reds lineup is ice-cold, ranking dead last in OPS over the past week. Expect another multi-run Dodgers win against a team that likely can’t wait for the season to end.
Check out Quinn Allen's full Dodgers vs. Reds predictions.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: SportsNet LA, Reds.TV
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Phillies -1.5
Price: 54¢ at Polymarket
Cristopher Sanchez has absolutely owned this Washington Nationals team throughout his career, limiting them to a .225 xBA and .276 xwOBA across 109 plate appearances — a sample size that includes a 0-for-11 mark from James Wood. We'll take that.
On the other side is the Nats' No. 8 prospect, Jackson Kent, who's had a rough rookie campaign and is coming off a three-inning, eight-hit, five-earned-run outing against the Padres. His 5.49 xERA suggests this loaded Philadelphia Phillies lineup should be able to ambush the 23-year-old early.
I love this price at 54 cents, and would play it up to 58 at Polymarket.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Nationals.TV
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| NYY/MIN u7.5 | 47% |
| Read analysis in our Yankees vs. Twins predictions | |
| SD -1.5 | 54% |
| Read analysis in our Padres vs. Rockies predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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