A full-slate Tuesday means we have a ton to get into from the MLB player props market today. Let's dive in!
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 15, including why the Padres are going to light up Kyle Freeland.
Our best MLB player props for today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Luis Garcia Jr. |
Over 1.5 total bases | +100 |
 Kyle Freeland |
Over 2.5 earned runs | -128 |
 Martin Perez |
Over 1.5 walks allowed | -171 |
Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
New York Yankees slugger Luis Garcia Jr. finds himself in a strong spot this evening against Minnesota Twins right-hander Bailey Ober. The first baseman enters with an elite rating in the current-season ratings on Batters-Box, where he also clears nearly 92% of Ober's arsenal.
Garcia has been one of the hottest hitters in this Yankees lineup, sporting a .500 SLG and .206 ISO, with a hard-contact rate over 57% and a nearly 20% barrel rate.
The last 60 left-handed hitters Ober has faced have generated a hard-hit rate of nearly 50%, while owning a .342 xBA, .562 xSLG, and .349 xwOBA.
Do not pay juice for this prop. If you can't find plus money, take his home run and double straight.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, MNNT
Kyle Freeland Over 2.5 earned runs (-128)
The pride of the Colorado Rockies finds himself in a rough spot against the red-hot San Diego Padres. Veteran southpaw Kyle Freeland draws a Padres lineup that owns a 143 wRC+, .852 OPS, and .372 wOBA over its last six games.
Despite Freeland's solid form over his last five outings, he always struggles at Coors Field. This season, he has a 5.10 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and a near-10% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
According to Batters-Box, the veteran has the worst pitcher rating on the day, drawing seven elite-rated hitters and one with a strong rating.
The Padres are in such a great spot to boom at the dish once again that asking for three runs should be a breeze. Take this down to -130, or take the Padres F5 team total Over 3.5 at plus money.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: COLR, SDPA
Martin Perez Over 1.5 walks allowed (-171)
If you are not in the juice-paying business, just add Garcia or your favorite hitter from today's slate to this play for plus money. However, Atlanta Braves southpaw Martin Perez has been a walk machine over his last five games, posting a walk rate north of 11%.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs rank second in walk rate over their last 12 games (11.2%). Against left-handed pitchers during that span, they own a 13% walk rate.
The Cubs lineup has six hitters with a walk rate of 8.7% or higher over their last 10 games, five of whom own at least a 14.3% walk rate in that span.
On Batters-Box, through 22 poorly rated matchups, Perez has allowed 2+ walks 68.18% of the time, giving us a pretty good edge even at -171.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: TBS
- Prop picks: 503-983, +8.2 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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