It was back to the winning ways yesterday and one strikeout short of the sweep, but that doesn't matter as it's time for Thursday's profits in the pitcher and MLB player prop market, and I have all-day action.
Kade Anderson hasn't even shown his strikeout potential, but his third start might be a market low. Shane McClanahan has to be on a tight leash for a playoff run, and his strikeout market is falling, while Brandon Young's luck should run out in a pivotal series vs. Boston.
These are my favorite pitcher props for Thursday, Sept. 3.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Kade Anderson |
Over 5.5 strikeouts | -105 |
 Shane McClanahan |
Under 4.5 strikeouts | +105 |
 Brandon Young |
Under 17.5 outs | -125 |
Strikeout prop: Kade Anderson Over 5.5 strikeouts (-105)
This projects as the best strikeout Over on the board today, with 6.56 Ks projected on 84 pitches, which could be a short pitch count.
The Mariners brought up their 2025 third-overall pick after he struck out 135 Double-A batters across 93 innings this year. This will be Kade Anderson's third start, and he has gone 81 and 85 pitches with eight Ks in each, while getting his best K-rate (K%) matchup today against the Athletics.
The lefty has faced the Cubs and Blue Jays, who are both among the 10 worst K-rate matchups for a pitcher. The A's own the seventh-worst K% against left-handed pitching at 24.6% and the seventh-worst K% on the road at 23.8%.
Anderson could see more than 85 pitches, but he can still get to six punchouts in just 15 outs in this matchup.
The market is respecting the projections and moving toward the Over, with some books as short as -140, closer to the -150 fair price. Anderson is a big reason why this Under 7.5 went on the free MLB picks page this morning.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Mariners.TV, NBCSCA
Strikeout prop: Shane McClanahan Under 4.5 strikeouts (+105)
This market is falling for good reason, as Shane McClanahan's leash, recent output, and projections point toward the Under.
The Tampa starter is being handled with baby gloves, as he has gone 80, 74, 57, 49, 71, and 87 pitches since the break while going 1-5 O/U on this strikeout total. The Rays are being careful with the oft-injured lefty and need him healthy for a playoff run.
McClanahan missed all of 2024 and 2025 due to Tommy John surgery and a nerve injury. He last threw 115 innings in 2023 and is already up to 113 innings this year, so it's easy to see why the organization is being cautious with him — especially with the Rays owning the best record in the AL.
THE BAT is projecting 79 pitches and 4.55 Ks today, making this a fair price around -120/-115.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rangers Sports Network, Rays.TV
Pitcher out prop: Brandon Young Under 17.5 outs (-125)
Brandon Young has been one of the luckier pitchers in the second half of baseball, with an xERA more than a full point higher than his 3.33 ERA. He is giving up homers and has the worst HR/FB rate in the second half among any starter on today's slate.
Young is also a big part of why Neil Parker is backing the Red Sox on the ML in his Red Sox vs. Orioles predictions.
With Baltimore in a tight playoff race and all but two arms likely unavailable in the bullpen today, any issues could be enough to get the hook for a pitcher who is 50% to the Over since the break and has been on the good side of some luck.
The projection for the right-hander against the No. 2 scoring offense in the second half is 86 pitches and 15.68 outs, which would give bettors value on the Under if/when this number flips to 16.5.
If this gets any shorter on 17.5, I'd suggest waiting for the move to 16.5 and playing that to -110.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FOX
- Prop picks: 30-26, +6.52 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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