Game 5 is close to a pick 'em with the ALCS tied 2-2 after Tampa Bay's 7-3 win yesterday. My Rays vs. Guardians prop picks are in ahead of a 5:08 p.m. ET first pitch at Progressive Field on Sunday, Oct. 18.
I have three MLB picks for tonight, with Junior Caminero headlining my card against Parker Messick.
Best Rays vs Guardians props
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| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Caminero 1+ home runs |
16% |
 DeLauter 2+ total bases |
40% |
| Aranda 2+ hits + runs + RBI |
49% |
Prop pick #1: Junior Caminero 1+ home runs
Junior Caminero at 16% is the cleanest way to attack Parker Messick, so I’ll take a quarter-unit on Tampa Bay's biggest power threat.
Messick is so talented, we need every edge to fade him. Caminero is a great play because he’s equally successful against southpaws.
Caminero hit .287 with a .490 SLG and eight home runs against left-handed pitching this season, good for a .916 OPS. He finished with 42 homers overall and a 13.1% barrel rate.
Messick also got hit around the last time he saw this lineup, allowing 10 baserunners over five innings in Game 2 while generating six whiffs, the fourth-lowest total in any start he made this year.
Caminero doubled in Game 4 and brings that swing into Sunday.
Prop pick #2: Chase DeLauter 2+ total bases
In play up to 41%.
Chase DeLauter at 40% is a reasonable entry on Cleveland's most productive October bat. Plus, he has already taken Drew Rasmussen deep once in this series.
The homer came leading off the sixth in Game 1, an opposite-field shot on a hanging breaking ball that snapped Rasmussen's scoreless-innings streak. DeLauter is batting .294 with a .441 SLG through Game 4.
The regular season set it up. DeLauter launched 13 of his 16 homers off right-handed pitching while slugging .450 in that split, and he bats third behind Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez. One extra-base swing clears the prop on its own.
Prop pick #3: Jonathan Aranda 2+ hits + runs + RBI
In play up to 52%.
Jonathan Aranda at 49% is the best price on this board. He cleared this number by himself in Game 4, collecting three hits and two RBI. He typically hits second in Tampa Bay's order behind Yandy Diaz, so he’ll have chances to do damage.
Messick's platoon numbers help our bet. Interestingly, left-handed hitters produced a .304 wOBA and a .388 SLG against Cleveland's rookie this season, compared with .263 and .338 for right-handers.
The lineup spot does the rest. Aranda hit .274 with a .358 OBP, 22 home runs, and a 46% hard-hit rate this season, and he needs two combined from the two hole. A single in front of Caminero and one swing from the Rays' No. 3 hitter covers both.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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