The Boston Red Sox visit the Baltimore Orioles for a key four-game series in the American League Wild Card race beginning Thursday, Sept. 3.
Boston is a short road favorite ahead of the opening pitch at 7:15 p.m. ET, and my top Red Sox vs. Orioles predictions and MLB picks call for the BoSox to come through with the win at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland.
Who will win Red Sox vs Orioles today: Red Sox moneyline (54.3%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Baltimore Orioles righty Brandon Young has outpitched his underlying numbers this season with his 4.36 xERA and 4.47 xFIP well above his 3.38 ERA, and he’s thrown a career-high 147 innings including his 16 2/3 frames with Triple-A Norfolk.
The workload is catching up, too, with Young’s numbers skyrocketing to a 5.15 xERA and 4.77 xFIP while allowing a healthy .366 wOBA and .205 ISO across his past six starts.
As a result, I like the Boston Red Sox to succeed at the dish, given they’ve averaged 5.3 runs per game while ranking fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, and I'd back them to 56%.
COVERS INTEL: The Baltimore Orioles rank 29th in on-base percentage with the seventh-highest strikeout percentage across the past two weeks.
Red Sox vs Orioles Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (51%)
The Orioles are also running hot at the plate with a fifth-ranked xwOBA and an average of 4.6 runs per game over the past 30 days, and their lineup features a number of impact right-handed hitters to counter Boston lefty Jake Bennett.
There are also ideal hitting conditions forecast at Camden Yards tonight, and in addition to the highlighted favorable matchup for the Boston lineup, the Red Sox have hit the Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.90 Units / 27% ROI).
This Over 8.5 is in play to 53.5%.
Red Sox vs Orioles home run prediction: Wilyer Abreu (22.2%)
Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu has six extra-base hits across his past seven games for a .321 ISO, and he also sports a .214 mark against righties for the season.
With Abreu already taking Young deep once this season, and with the righties struggling, the Boston star has my attention tonight.
- ML/RL bets: 50-22, +30.08 units
- Over/Under bets: 23-21, +0.54 units
Red Sox vs Orioles weather
The forecast calls for a hot and humid evening (89 F at first pitch) with a mild 5 to 6 mph wind blowing out to right field for favorable hitting conditions.
Red Sox vs Orioles odds
- Moneyline: Red Sox 55.6% | Orioles 51.2%
- Run line: Red Sox -1.5 (%43.5) | Orioles +1.5 (60%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (52.4%) | Under 8.5 (52.4%)
Red Sox vs Orioles trend
The Boston Red Sox have won 27 of their last 45 away games (+7.10 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Orioles.
How to watch Red Sox vs Orioles and game info
| Location | Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date | Thursday, September 3, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Jake Bennett (9-6, 3.27 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Brandon Young (9-3, 3.38 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Orioles latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
