It was a second straight sweep yesterday on the Starting Pitchers Edges and Angles card. I’m locked in on starters and there are some great angles to bet on today with lots of afternoon action and a smaller slate.
These are my favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Thursday, May 1.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 1
Berrios o2.5 earned runs (-110)
Lord u1.5 walks allowed (+140)
Liberatore u5.5 hits allowed (-115)
Today's SP best bets
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
The angle: The Jays need Berrios to get deep after a bulpen day yesterday
The move: Jose Berrios Over 2.5 earned runs (-110 at DraftKings)
The Toronto Blue Jays used a bullpen day yesterday and will ask Jose Berrios to get a little deeper in this game and reset the relievers.
The Toronto starter has been up and down this year with struggles keeping the ball in the park with four homers allowed across three home starts.
Some Boston Red Sox bats have great numbers vs. the right-hander, including Jarren Duran, who is 9-for-18 vs. Berrios with three home runs. Three runs over 18-21 outs is possible, but so is a game where he gets hit hard again.
Give me some runs in this indoor game as I am also on the Over 8.5.
Nationals vs. Phillies
The angle: Lord has a short leash and this is a good price on the projections
The move: Brad Lord Under 1.5 walks allowed (+140 at DraftKings)
Brad Lord is not a well-known name for a reason. He is a short-leashed SP who has made four starts and has not thrown more than 80 pitches. However, he is not very good, so betting on his other Unders is not advised as the leash is not fully priced in here, in my opinion.
He has had some walk clusters but is coming off an 80-pitch, zero-walk outing and is projected for around 1.5 walks today from THE BAT, making this better than a coin flip at giant plus-money odds.
It’s a tough matchup vs. the Phillies with winds blowing out to left but this is one of the best +EV MLB picks on the projections today.
Cardinals vs. Reds
The angle: Liberatore could have a short outing with possible rain
The move: Matthew Liberatore Under 5.5 hits allowed (-115 at bet365)
Matthew Liberatore projects for just 5.1 hits allowed on 87 pitches, per THE BAT. He is less than a hit/inning pitcher who has thrown more than 90 pitches just once in five starts this year. He has elite command, with just two walks allowed over 31 innings, so he'll be doing plenty of low-stress pitching today.
Another big angle is the weather. Kevin Roth has this as the game with the most risk in terms of in-game delays with double-digit winds blowing right to left helping knock down some balls. The entire St. Louis Cardinals bullpen is also available.
Not intended for use in MA.
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