How about a 3-0 sweep for +4.45 units on the Thursday card?
As Jim Morrison said, “It’s the mojo rising.” Let’s carry that pocket money into another trio of winners and take some profits into the Summer weekend.
These are my three favorite MLB player props for Friday, June 13.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for June 13
Hurter o2.5 strikeouts (+110 at bet365)
Kolek o3.5 strikeouts (+128 at bet365)
Paddack o1.5 walks allowed (+150 at bet365)
Today's SP best bets
Reds vs. Tigers
The angle: Hurter is a longer-length opener who could reach 50 pitches
The move: Brant Hurter Over 2.5 strikeouts (+110 at bet365)
Detroit Tigers left-hander Brant Hurter will be the opener today vs. the Cincinnati Reds, but his length will be longer than you expect. He threw 44 pitches on Tuesday and has registered more than three outs in all but three of his 19 appearances
In his two starts, he has recorded 17 outs and five punchouts. THE BAT is projecting just over three Ks on 47 pitches, and Derek Carty even released 4+ punchouts at +240.
This will be a sweaty run, but a K/inning across nine outs is very doable, and we’re getting plus money. Hurter is a K/inning pitcher facing a Reds offense that ranks among the Top 10 in strikeout rate.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks
The angle: He has an underrated leash and can go six innings
The move: Stephen Kolek Over 3.5 strikeouts (+128 at bet365)
I’m working against the projections on this small, plus-money K prop. Stephen Kolek has gone back-to-back starts without giving up a run, including reaching a season-high of 104 pitches.
The San Diego Padres right-hander doesn’t possess elite K% numbers, but six innings and four strikeouts feel like his floor, especially with his outs market set at 16.5. Kolek hit this Over in four straight starts to begin the season, but has gone Under in three straight turns, which is why bettors are getting a great price today.
Kolek's swinging K% could see an increase as it is down two points year-over-year. It’s a tough matchup at Chase Field against the Arizona Diamondbacks, but I'll bet this at +115 or better.
Twins vs. Astros
The angle: Big plus-money walk props are great value
The move: Chris Paddack Over 1.5 walks allowed (+150 at bet365)
I will take almost any walk prop — Over or Under — at +140 or better.
Chris Paddack is making a road start against the Houston Astros, and the Minnesota Twins righty sports 22 walks over 71 innings this year.
The veteran starter hit this Over vs. Houston already this year, is 7-6 to the Over on the prop across 13 starts, and threw 110 pitches two starts ago, so he'll certainly be on a pitch count tonight.
This market has high variance, and the best way to counter it is to hit big plus-money plays.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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