The Seattle Mariners host the Kansas City Royals in a matchup of American League teams trending in different directions.
Seattle has won 11 of its last 17 games as it tries to track down the Houston Astros in the American League West. While Kansas City is regressing following an 86-win season and a postseason appearance, having lost eight of its last nine.
My Royals vs. Mariners predictions break down why these trends will continue and bring you a player prop to go along with it.
That and more MLB picks for Tuesday, July 1.
Royals vs Mariners prediction
My Royals vs Mariners best bet: Michael Lorenzen Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+105 at bet365)
⚾ Pick Analysis
The Seattle Mariners struck first in this series against the visiting Kansas City Royals, earning a 6-2 win thanks to big nights from the Big Dumper Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena, who both went deep last night.
It continued the theme of the Mariners' lineup being one of the hottest in baseball. Seattle is coming off a fantastic month of June in which it ranked second in batting average, seventh in OPS, and third in wRC+.
I’m betting that hot June rolls over into July. That’s in part because the Royals hand the ball to Michael Lorenzen in this matchup.
The 33-year-old right-hander feels like little more than an innings-eater at this point in his career. Lorenzen enters this matchup ranked in the 29th percentile in expected ERA, the 32nd in opponent expected batting average, and the 31st in strikeout rate.
Lorenzen also has a fairly long leash, averaging 90 pitches per start, which just means plenty of opportunities for the Mariners to rack up the knocks against the Royals’ right-hander.
Oddsmakers have pegged Lorenzen with a hits allowed prop of 5.5, with the Over sitting at a little better than even money. Lorenzen has gone Over this number in eight of his last 14 starts, and with the way the M’s are swinging the bats, I like the Over to cash again tonight.
Royals vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Michael Lorenzen Over 5.5 Hits Allowed
Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Total Bases
Mariners -1.5
🚀 SGP Analysis
One of the Mariners, who’s swinging a hot stick right now, is Randy Arozarena. The M’s outfielder has three multi-hit games in a row and is hitting .347 with a 1.003 OPS, including eight extra-base hits and nine RBIs over his last 12 games.
While he doesn’t have a hit in his career vs. Lorenzen, he’s made hard contact to the tune of a 1.092 xSLG in three career plate appearances. Let’s add over 1.5 total bases for Randy to this same-game parlay.
And let’s round this SGP out with Seattle to cover the runline. The Mariners counter Lorenzen with Emerson Hancock.
Even though, they have similar ERA’s, Hancock has been pretty good recently, outside of getting blown up by the Cubs a few starts ago. Besides that, he’s held opponents to two earned runs of fewer in five straight starts.
Plus, the Royals have been one of the least-productive lineups vs. right-handed pitching this season with the fourth-worst OPS in baseball.
Royals vs Mariners odds
Royals vs Mariners live odds
Royals vs Mariners opening odds
- Moneyline: Kansas City +115 | Seattle -135
- Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-185) | Seattle -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 | Under 8.0
Royals vs Mariners trend
The Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 79 games for +29.85 Units and a 32% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Mariners.
How to watch Royals vs Mariners and game info
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Tuesday, 7-1-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSNKC, RSNW |
| Royals starting pitcher | Michael Lorenzen (4-8, 4.91 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Emerson Hancock (3-4, 5.30 ERA) |
Royals vs Mariners latest injuries
Royals vs Mariners weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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