The Philadelphia Phillies continue their California road trip with a weekend set beginning tonight against the San Diego Padres.
My Phillies vs. Padres predictions expect a low-scoring game, with first pitch set for 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park.
Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, July 11.
Phillies vs Padres prediction
My Phillies vs Padres best bet: Under 8 (-109 at DraftKings)
The Philadelphia Phillies have gone 51-39 to the Under with the San Diego Padres one better at 52-38 so far this season. Those trends should continue on Friday night as we get a good pitching matchup between Ranger Suarez (7-2, 1.99 ERA) and Ryan Bergert (1-0, 2.67 ERA).
Suarez had a rough start to the season with the Diamondbacks putting up seven runs on him in his first start of the year. Since then, however, the southpaw has allowed a total of 10 ER in 73.1 IP (1.23 ERA). That includes one earned run or fewer in five straight starts and nine of 12 overall this season.
Bergert was used out of the bullpen to begin his rookie year, but has made his last five appearances as a starter. He’s allowed 8 earned runs in 23 IP in those five starts for a 3.13 ERA, never allowing more than 3 earned runs in a game.
Finally, the Padres have one of the best bullpens in baseball (3.28 ERA), and even with the Phillies’ bullpen struggles, Suarez should be able to go deep into the game (7+ IP in 7 of 12 starts) with the All-Star break next week.
Phillies vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8
Phillies moneyline
Ranger Suarez 4+ Ks
The Phillies have been much better vs. RHP (43-23) this season as opposed to vs. LHP (11-16), and the opposite is true for the Padres at 35.28 vs. RHP and 15-15 vs. LHP.
Suarez also gives the Phillies an advantage on the mound, and he’s been fairly consistent with his strikeouts this season. The Padres only strike out seven times per game, but Suarez has 5+ Ks in 11 of 12 starts this season. He struck out eight in eight innings last year at Petco Park as well.
Phillies vs Padres odds
Phillies vs Padres live odds
Phillies vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -160 | San Diego +135
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (-110) | San Diego +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Phillies vs Padres trend
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 43 away games (+14.70 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Padres.
How to watch Phillies vs Padres and game info
| Location | PETCO Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Friday, 7-11-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSP, PADRES.tv |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Ranger Suarez (7-2, 1.99 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Ryan Bergert (1-0, 2.67 ERA) |
Phillies vs Padres latest injuries
Phillies vs Padres weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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