The Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers open a three-game series Friday at Comerica Park.
With the best record in baseball and AL Cy Young frontrunner Tarik Skubal taking the mound, my Mariners vs. Tigers predictions back Detroit to come out strong in the series opener.
Here are my best free MLB picks for this AL clash on July 11.
Mariners vs Tigers prediction
My Mariners vs Tigers best bet: Tigers F5 -0.5 (-140 at bet365)
Both of these teams can hit, with the Detroit Tigers boasting an OPS of .766 at home and the Seattle Mariners ranking third in the majors in OPS on the road (.769). That said, I'm far more confident in the Tigers having offensive success in this matchup.
While the Mariners will have three-time All-Star Luis Castillo on the hill, there are a few reasons to fade him here.
Castillo has worrying metrics with his hard-hit rate and barrel rate in the bottom 10th percentile, resulting in an expected ERA of 4.57. He has also struggled away from pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, posting a 4.67 ERA with an OBA of .302 in eight road starts.
Detroit counters with Tarik Skubal, who is 10-2 with a 2.02 ERA and an MLB-best 0.81 WHIP through 18 starts. His advanced stats are also phenomenal, with the lefty leading the majors in WAR (4.7), FIP (1.87), and SIERA (2.31).
In addition, the Tigers are playing at home after a day off while the Mariners played in New York last night. Back Detroit to get off to a fast start and have a lead after five innings.
Mariners vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)
Tigers F5 -0.5
Riley Green Over 1.5 total bases
J.P. Crawford Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Riley Greene slugs .524 and ranks 10th in the majors in total bases with 186. The hard-hitting outfielder has been even better lately, slugging .606 over the last 30 days.
He also crushes the ball with the platoon advantage (.611 SLG against righties), which he will have tonight against Castillo.
J.P. Crawford has been productive over the last month, but he's one of the few hitters on Seattle who actually performs worse on the road. Crawford has an OPS of .850 at home, but that number plummets to .709 in away games.
He also slugs just .314 against southpaws like Skubal.
Mariners vs Tigers odds
Mariners vs Tigers live odds
Mariners vs Tigers opening odds
- Moneyline: Seattle +175 | Detroit -210
- Run line: Seattle +1.5 (-125) | Detroit -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: Over 7 (+100) | Under 7 (-120)
Mariners vs Tigers trend
The Tigers have hit the first five innings team total Over in 57 of their last 94 games (+19.60 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Tigers.
How to watch Mariners vs Tigers and game info
| Location | Comerica Park, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Friday, 7-11-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Luis Castillo (5-5, 3.31 ERA) |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Tarik Skubal (10-2, 2.02 ERA) |
Mariners vs Tigers latest injuries
Mariners vs Tigers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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