Red Sox vs Yankees Picks and Predictions: Judgement Day

Yankees slugger Aaron Judge has history within his grasp. Will tonight be the night he finally ties Roger Maris to claim a share of the American league single-season home run record?

Last Updated: Sep 25, 2022 8:06 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It doesn’t get much better than this.

Aaron Judge is still looking for home run No. 61 on the season, which would tie him with Roger Maris for the all-time American League home run record. He fell short of that feat yesterday, but all eyes will be turned to Sunday Night Baseball as he takes another crack at the record.

Check out our free MLB picks and predictions for the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees on Sunday, September 25.

Red Sox vs Yankees best odds

Red Sox vs Yankees picks and predictions

Not only is Judge looking for the home run record, but the AL Triple Crown is also within reach. With home runs (60) and RBI (128) essentially locked up, he’s battling a handful of other stars for the batting title. It’s been an exceptional season for the slugger, no matter how you slice it.

Will Sunday Night Baseball be the day he ties Roger Maris’ American League home run record? Judge needs only one more dinger to tie the Yankee legend, and let’s be honest — that’s what everyone will be watching for in this matchup.

The Yankees (93-58) have already locked up a playoff spot, sitting 8.5 games above the Toronto Blue Jays and posting a +226 run differential this season. The Red Sox (72-79) aren’t technically elimited from the playoffs yet, but it’s only a matter of time as they are 11 games back of the third and final spot. There isn’t much intrigue in this rivalry game on Sunday Night outside of the obvious — AARON JUDGE!

Boston sends rookie Brayan Bello to the mound on Sunday. That’s a lot of pressure to put on a rookie’s shoulders. Hey rookie, it’s only the whole world watching to see whether or not you’ll give up a historic long ball — go get ‘em!

Despite posting solid numbers at AA and AAA this season, Bello has struggled mightily in the majors. His 4.75 ERA and 1.73 WHIP are both brutal, and his 21.6% strikeout rate is well below what he posted in the minors (33.8%). His 4.1% barrel rate is a positive indicator, but otherwise his profile leaves a lot to be desired at this stage. He’s a promising young arm, but he still has a ways to go.

I’m going to take Judge at +180 odds to hit No. 61 on Sunday Night Baseball. The entire baseball world will be watching Judge to see if he can permanently stamp his name in the record books, and I’ll believe in his magical season continuing. What better spot could it be — against his rival Boston Red Sox, on Sunday Night Baseball, against a struggling rookie. Look out, Roger Maris!

My best bet: Aaron Judge total home runs Over 0.5 (+180 at BetMGM)

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Red Sox vs Yankees moneyline analysis

Looking at DraftKings Sportsbook, the Yankees opened as -165 favorites and currently sit at -170. The comeback on the Red Sox is +145.

New York has been hot, winning each of its last six games. The Yankees have dominated their division, winning seven straight against the AL East. Bello is a struggling rookie, while the Yankees are 5-0 in their last five games against a right-handed starting pitcher.

The Yankees have been a great bet at home, posting a 52-19 record across their last 71 home games. They have handled business against lesser competition, as well, going 38-16 in their last 54 games against a team with a winning record.

Boston has typically played well on Sunday, going 13-5 in its last 18 Sunday games. The Red Sox have had some success against left-handed pitching as well, posting a 17-8 record in their last 25 games against a left-handed starter. On the year, Boston ranks sixth in wOBA and ninth in wRC+ against lefties.

This rivalry has been dominated by the Yankees recently, as they’ve won each of the last five meetings. The Yankees are 43-16 in the last 59 meetings between these two teams in New York.

Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under analysis

The Red Sox hit left-handed pitching well, but the Under is actually 7-2 in their last nine road games against a left-handed starter. Cortes is certainly a quality southpaw, and he’s had up-and-down performances against Boston. In his last start, he allowed only one run across five innings to grab the win. Back on July 8, he allowed eight hits and four earned runs across only 3.2 innings. It was tied for the most runs he’s allowed all season.

The Red Sox have been hot at the plate, ranking fourth in wOBA and fifth in wRC+ in the month of September.

The Yankees, meanwhile, have been even hotter at the plate. They rank second in wOBA and are tied for first in wRC+ this month.

These teams have combined to go Over the total in each of the last six meetings at Yankee stadium.

The total opened at 8.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook but has been bet down to 8. I would imagine there will be some buyback at that number considering the trends and both teams’ recent performance at the plate.

Red Sox vs Yankees trend to know

The Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these two teams in New York. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees

Red Sox vs Yankees game info

Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NU
Date: Sunday, September 25, 2022
First pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET
TV:
ESPN

Starting pitchers

Brayan Bello (2-6, 4.75 ERA): Bello is a promising young prospect who has struggled at the major league level, posting a 4.75 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. He had a magnificent 1.69 ERA and 2.85 FIP across seven starts at AA and then a 2.76 ERA and 2.65 FIP in 11 appearances at AAA. That success simply has not translated to the majors, where he will need to improve upon his 10.6% walk rate.

Nestor Cortes Jr. (10-4, 2.67 ERA): Cortes had a breakout season in 2021 when he posted a 2.90 ERA in 22 appearances, 14 of which were starts. He’s been on another level in 2022, posting a 2.81 xERA and 3.28 FIP. He has a healthy strikeout rate (25.6%) and does a good job of limiting walks (6.0%).

Red Sox vs Yankees latest injuries

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Red Sox vs Yankees weather

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