Red Sox vs Yankees Picks and Predictions: Sox Have Value at This Price

Two starters with plenty of question marks take the mound Saturday as Boston and New York renew hostilities. With the wind at their backs, we're expecting the bats to define this matchup, as our Red Sox vs. Yankees picks explain.

Last Updated: Apr 9, 2022 8:45 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Boston Red Sox MLB betting picks
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The New York Yankees started the season in walk-off fashion with a 6-5 victory over the Boston Red Sox in 11 innings on Friday. It was the pinstripes’ first opening day walk-off win since 1957.

The opening series rivalry continues Saturday in the Bronx, with Nick Pivetta on the mound for the Red Sox and Luis Severino dealing for the Yankees.

Will Boston get even, or will New York move to 2-0?

Check out our MLB picks and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees on Saturday, April 9 to find out.

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Red Sox vs Yankees odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Yankees opened as -163 favorites. They currently range from -160 to -175 favorites depending on the book.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Red Sox vs Yankees predictions

Picks made on 4/8/2022 at 9:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Red Sox vs Yankees game info

Location: Yankee Stadium, New York, NY
Date: Saturday, April 9, 2022
First pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
TV: Fox Sports 1

Red Sox vs Yankees betting preview

Starting pitchers

Nick Pivetta (2021: 9-8, 4.53 ERA): Pivetta will take the mound in the second game of the season for the Sox. He sports an unseemly 5.19 career ERA but has always possessed tantalizing potential. Will 2022 be the year he finally figures it out? That’s to be determined, but he’s pitched much better in his year and a half in Boston, sporting a 4.36 ERA across 32 starts.

Luis Severino (2021: 1-0, 0.00 ERA): The right-hander signed a four-year deal worth $90 million before the 2019 season, but he’s barely seen the mound since. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020 and had numerous setbacks a year ago that kept him off the field almost the entirety of the year. He’s thrown just 18 innings since the beginning of the 2019 season. Still just 28 years old, he possesses a career 3.43 ERA. 


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Red Sox: Josh Taylor RP (Out).
Yankees: Zack Britton RP (Out), Ben Rortvedt C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Red Sox are 4-1 in their last five vs. American League East. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees.

Red Sox vs Yankees picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Yankees got the best of the Red Sox in Game 1, but it was as close as it could get. The Red Sox got to Gerrit Cole early, with Rafael Devers smacking a two-run homer in the first inning and J.D. Martinez knocking in another to make it 3-0 after only one frame. The Yanks battled back and tied the game three different times before Josh Donaldson hit a walk-off single in his first game in pinstripes. 

We believe that the odds do not accurately reflect the caliber of these two teams. The Yankees are perceived as a decent-sized favorite, but it wouldn’t be all that surprising if these teams finished the season pretty close in the AL East standings. A big factor in the Yanks’ season-long outlook is the health and performance of the starting pitching. No one is a bigger question mark than Saturday’s starter, Luis Severino. 

Severino hasn’t seen a full workload since 2018 when he won 19 games and racked up 220 strikeouts while sporting a cool 3.39 ERA. He’s one of the sport's brightest stars on the mound when healthy, but there are huge concerns about his health. He’s supposed to be full-go heading into the season, but we’re opting to take a wait-and-see approach. 

New York struck out 15 times in the opener, something that should be expected going forward with this lineup. Nick Pivetta will be on the mound for the Sox and possesses a strong 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings during his time in Boston. If Pivetta can limit the long ball, we fancy the Red Sox’s chances to get payback on Saturday.

Prediction: Red Sox (+155 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

The most recent weather forecast calls for winds of 12 mph blowing straight out to center field. Yankee Stadium already has close similarities to a little league field regarding the regularity with which pop flies find their way into the bleachers, and this wind will only exacerbate this factor.

As alluded to previously, it’s impossible to know what to expect from Severino given the irregularity with which he’s found himself on the mount over the last three years. He's great when he’s at his best, but it’s a huge question mark what Severino we will see Saturday, and in 2022 overall.

Pivetta has pitched much better in Boston and is better on the road than at home, but his ground ball rate has dropped significantly since joining the Sox. Give up a few fly balls to this power-hitting Yankees squad with the wind blowing out to center, and soon enough, the runs are adding to the scoreboard. 

Both teams possess worthy offenses and both pitchers have question marks. Give us the Over. You can have a 9.5 total for reduced juice at some books, but we’ll be using the Over 9 at -120 as our target. 

Prediction: Over 9 (-120 at PointsBet)

Best bet

This game is being played at Yankee Stadium and the wind is forecasted to be blowing directly out to center field, so we like the Over

That being said, we find the most value with the Red Sox Moneyline and therefore will be using it as our best bet. Will Severino be at his peak form? Who knows! Regardless of the uncertainty of the situation, we believe there’s value in this line as these teams are closer than the odds indicate.

Pick: Red Sox (+155 at bet365)

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