Mets vs Nationals Picks and Predictions: Bassitt Debut Fuels Low-Scoring Mets W

New York's bats have done plenty of talking so far this season, but it's the debut of offseason addition Chris Bassitt that provides the real edge Saturday. Find out more with our MLB betting picks for Mets vs. Nationals.

Last Updated: Apr 9, 2022 11:42 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Pete Alonso New York Mets MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets will look to wrap their first series victory of the 2022 season when they visit the Washington Nationals on Saturday night. 

The Mets have taken the first two in this four-game set in convincing fashion, getting major contributions from offseason pickups Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Canha. Another key piece brought in this winter was Chris Bassitt, who makes his Mets debut against little-known Joan Adon.

Can the Nationals claw their way back into this series? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Nationals on Saturday, April 9.

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Mets vs Nationals odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Mets opened as consensus -154 favorites for this contest, and money has since come in on the underdog Nationals to knock the line down anywhere from five to 15 cents at most sportsbooks. 

The total opened at 9.0 and has drifted up to 9.5 at most major sites. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Nationals predictions

Picks made on 4/9/2022 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Mets vs Nationals game info

Location: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Date: Saturday, April 9, 2022
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
TV: MLB Network

Mets vs Nationals betting preview

Starting pitchers

Chris Bassitt (2021: 12-4, 3.15 ERA): Bassitt was working on a Cy Young-worthy season before a freak injury suffered against the Chicago White Sox on Aug. 17 put him on the shelf for a month. He got in 6 1/3 innings of work in his last two outings of 2021 before becoming a part of the Oakland A’s offseason fire sale. 

His ERA has been no higher than 3.81 over each of his last four seasons in Oakland, with no less than 47 2-3 innings pitched in each campaign. 

Joan Adon (2021: 0-0, 3.38 ERA): Adon has just one major league start under his belt, and it came against the Boston Red Sox on Oct. 3, 2021. He allowed nine runners to reach base that day, but held the Red Sox to two runs over 5 2-3 innings of work (94 pitches). 

Adon’s body of work in the minors last year was not much to get excited about, as he went 7-6 with 4.97 ERA. Only one of those outings occurred at the Triple-A level. 


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Mets: Francisco Lindor (Questionable), Jake Reed (Out).
Nationals: Ehire Adrianza (Out), Carter Kieboom (Out), Will Harris (Out), Seth Romero (Out), Erick Fedde (Questionable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Nationals are 5-21 in their last 26 Saturday games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Nationals.

Mets vs Nationals picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Mets should be led to victory by a strong performance from Chris Bassitt on Saturday.

Bassitt allowed just one earned run over his last 20 innings of work prior to the White Sox game in which he was injured by a comebacker. He keeps his ERA low because he doesn’t get himself into trouble, as evidenced by his 1.06 WHIP from last season, a personal best. 

New York manager Buck Showalter is spoiled for choice with his relievers, which have allowed just one run through seven combined innings so far this year. Only Seth Lugo worked both nights, meaning closer Edwin Diaz is available, along with setup man Trevor May.

The Mets’ bats have demonstrated plenty of pop through two games, which spells trouble for the unproven Joan Adon. Once he departs, the Nats’ already-overworked bullpen – which has trotted out an MLB-high 10 pitchers through two games – will take over. The Amazins have roughed up this unit to the tune of a 5.40 ERA.

Prediction: Mets moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

The Mets are hitting .347 as a team through two games, way above expectations for a club that was 27th in runs scored a year ago. They could be due for regression in this spot with an unfamiliar pitcher in Adon taking the hill. Pete Alonso and company may want to be patient and gather information on Adon, whom they’ll likely face multiple times this season. 

Washington’s lineup has earned three of its first four runs of 2022 via the longball. Unfortunately for them, Bassitt is more than capable of keeping the ball in the ballpark, as his career home runs per nine innings figure is 0.9. 

Calm winds shouldn’t carry the ball, and damp, chilly conditions are conducive to the Under as well. 

It seems that bettors pushing the total up from 9.0 to 9.5 are misguided. Under bettors should be happy with the line movement and find the best vig on Under 9.5 runs they can. 

Prediction: Under 9.5 runs (-113 at Unibet)

Best bet

Bettors looking to factor out the bullpens as much as possible should be more than comfortable jumping on Under 5.5 runs through five innings, albeit with significant vig.

Adon can keep the Mets’ bats at bay for at least the first go-around through the lineup. If he gets tagged early, it stands to reason that manager Dave Martinez will employ the quick hook and keep the rookie’s confidence intact. That in turn will have New York’s hitters guessing if the bullpen enters the fray early.

Bassitt allowing more than a run or two through five frames would be a surprising result, especially with the way the Washington offense has languished early on in 2022. 

Pick: Under 5.5 runs first five innings (-139 at Unibet)

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