Red Sox vs Blue Jays Picks and Predictions: Open the Floodgates

While taking either the Blue Jays or Red Sox on the moneyline on Tuesday may be difficult, we do expect a lot of runs to cross the plate. Boston starter Michael Wacha is playing with fire and may regress soon while Ross Stripling likely won't pitch deep.

Last Updated: Jun 28, 2022 5:21 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Bo Bichette Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto Blue Jays MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays took Game 1 of this AL East series by a score of 7-2 behind a strong pitching performance from ace Kevin Gausman.

Toronto now sits a half-game behind the Red Sox, who have gone 8-2 over their last 10 games as one of the hottest teams in the league. 

The Red Sox have rebounded outstandingly well in recent form, going 12-1 in their last 13 games following a loss. Will that trend continue Tuesday night?

Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the Red Sox and Blue Jays on Tuesday, June 28 to find out.

Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Toronto opened as a -135 favorite but the line has widened. As of this writing, the Blue Jays can be had from between -133 to -145 depending on the book. The total opened at 10 across some books but now generally sits at 9.5

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Red Sox vs Blue Jays predictions

Picks made on 6/28/2022 at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Red Sox vs Blue Jays game info

Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Date: Tuesday, June 28, 2022
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
TV: NESN, Sportsnet

Red Sox vs Blue Jays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Michael Wacha (6-1, 2.34 ERA): Wacha has had a career resurgence in Boston. He spent his first seven years with St. Louis and made his name as a playoff hero. He moved to New York in 2020 and was ineffective across seven starts with the Mets (6.62 ERA). Last year was a disaster in Tampa Bay as Wacha’s 5.05 ERA across 23 starts left much to be desired.

Ross Stripling (4-2, 3.08 ERA): This marks Stripling’s second full season in Toronto and third overall. After his ERA was entrenched in the 3.00s during his first four seasons with the Dodgers, it ballooned to 4.80 in his first season with the Blue Jays. He’s made 17 appearances this season plus nine total starts, and his 3.08 ERA has improved from a year ago. He’s been great in recent form, allowing only three earned runs across his last 20 2-3 innings. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 14-2 in Blue Jays’ last 16 games following a win. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays

Red Sox vs Blue Jays picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The surface-level stats paint Wacha as the more effective starting pitcher, but his peripherals don’t tell the same story. Wacha’s 2.34 ERA is way below his 4.42 xERA, indicating regression is on the way. He doesn’t strike out many batters (6.61 K/9) but has done a decent job of limiting hard contact (4.6% barrel rate).

Stripling’s peripherals look much better. His 3.48 xERA isn’t far off from his 3.08 ERA, and his 2.86 FIP is excellent. His 6.1% barrel rate is a slight concern, but he’s looked good since moving back into the rotation, allowing only three earned runs across his last four starts. 

Boston’s lineup has been red hot, ranking fourth in wOBA and third in wRC+ over the last 10 days. This gives them a leg up on Toronto at the plate, who ranks 10th in wOBA and 11th in wRC+ over that same span. 

Toronto may have taken Game 1, but the trends indicate Boston is primed to bounce back in Game 2. The Red Sox are 12-1 in their last 13 games following a loss. 

The Sox have been printing money against right-handed pitching, going 6-1 in their last seven vs. a right-hander. They’ve also been road warriors, going 12-3 over their last 15 road games. 

This is a close matchup in which I give a slight edge to Stripling in the starting pitching department, but it’s close. The Red Sox have been playing great ball lately and the lineup has been one of the best in the league, so I give them the edge at the plate. If it comes down to the bullpen, Boston (3.71 bullpen ERA) has the edge over Toronto (4.36 bullpen ERA).

Prediction: Red Sox moneyline (+125 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

Both starting pitchers have performed admirably and have stellar ERAs, but neither can be trusted blindly.

Stripling has been excellent this season with a 2.86 FIP and he’s looked great in his last four starts, but he’s rarely pitched deep into games, and Toronto’s bullpen has the seventh-worst ERA in the majors. 

Boston’s lineup has been hot with a .798 OPS over the last 10 days and will provide some resistance.

Wacha’s 4.42 xERA is begging for regression from his 2.34 ERA, and soon. His 4.6% barrel rate is decent and he still profiles as a capable starter moving forward, but his current surface-level stats (i.e. 6-1 record) don’t accurately reflect the level of pitcher that he is. 

Toronto is 39-33-1 to the Over this season and 14-2 in their last 16 games following a win. 

Overs have been money at the Rogers Centre, going 12-2 in the Blue Jays’ last 14 home games

Prediction: Over 9.5 (+100 at Caesars)

Best bet

Boston has featured one of the best lineups of late, ranking in the Top 5 in almost every metric over the last 10 days.

Stripling has been a quality arm for Toronto, but he’s facing a dangerous offense and has a barrel rate above 6%. He’s still transitioning to the rotation and likely won’t pitch deep into the game, and the Blue Jays have one of the worst bullpens in the league.

Wacha’s 4.42 xERA is screaming for regression. The Blue Jays are trending heavily to the Over, evidenced by a 12-2 mark in their last 14 games at the Rogers Centre.

I’ll back that trend to continue.

PickOver 9.5 (+100 at Caesars)

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