Braves vs Phillies Picks and Predictions: Wheeler Dismantles Atlanta Once Again

The Phillies send ace Zack Wheeler to the mound against the visiting Braves tonight at Citizens Bank Park. Atlanta has been extremely strikeout-prone this season and we like Wheeler to dominate the lineup once again after previously dismantling it in May.

Last Updated: Jun 28, 2022 12:54 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Zack Wheeler Philadelphia Phillies MLB
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The Philadelphia Phillies return home to Citizens Bank Park following a successful 7-4 road trip to take on the Atlanta Braves tonight. 

These NL East rivals are meeting for just the second time this season after splitting a four-game set at Truist Park back in May. 

Can the Braves — who are 5-5 since their 14-game winning streak ended — get back to their winning ways here? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs Phillies on Tuesday, June 28.

Braves vs Phillies odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Phillies opened as slim consensus favorites of -113, and the line hasn’t moved more than a few cents at the majority of sportsbooks. Phillies -120 is the prevailing line as of Tuesday morning.

The total was unveiled at 8.0 but has been bet down to 7.5 just about everywhere.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Braves vs Phillies predictions

Picks made on 6/28/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Braves vs Phillies game info

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadlephia, PA
Date: Tuesday, June 28, 2022
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports South, NBC Sports Philadelphia

Braves vs Phillies betting preview

Starting pitchers

Charlie Morton (4-3, 4.84 ERA): Morton has been sharp in his last two appearances, allowing only two earned runs over 14 innings. He struck out 20 batters in that span while walking none. However, Morton was tagged by the Phillies for four runs on nine hits over 4 1-3 innings in his lone start against them in 2022 (May 25). 

Zack Wheeler (6-4, 2.77 ERA): Wheeler had a three-start winning streak snapped by the Texas Rangers when last seen on Wednesday, allowing four runs (two earned) on seven hits and three walks. It was by far his worst start in a while, as he had a 1.60 ERA over his previous nine combined efforts.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Betting trend to know

The Over is 11-4 in the Phillies’ last 15 games against teams with winning records. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies

Braves vs Phillies picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Zack Wheeler and the Phillies offense should overwhelm the Braves on Tuesday night.

Wheeler faced the Braves once this year, holding their lineup to two runs over 6 2-3 innings while striking out 10 batters on May 23. That start came on the road, but now he’ll be at home, where he’s 4-2 with a 1.49 ERA and .188 opponent batting average this season (42 1-3 innings). 

Dansby Swanson has been one of Atlanta’s hottest hitters of late — recording a 1.144 OPS over the last two weeks — but bettors should expect Wheeler to neutralize him. Swanson is a lifetime .161 hitter against Wheeler (5-for-31) with only one extra-base hit and 11 strikeouts. 

Meanwhile, Morton appears to have lost a step in 2022, his last two starts notwithstanding. He’s completed six innings in only four of his first 14 appearances this year. Philadelphia clubbed him once this season and can do it again, with or without Bryce Harper.

Rhys Hoskins has a .965 OPS over the last two weeks, and a .865 OPS at home this season (.725 OPS on the road). Kyle Schwarber has added three home runs over the last week to bring his impressive season total to 21, just one dinger off the National League lead currently enjoyed by Pete Alonso

The trend is your friend if you’re a Phillies fan in this spot, as the home team is 9-1 in its last 10 games against teams with winning records, and 12-2 in its last 14 games against right-handed starters. Atlanta is 4-10 in its last 14 games against starters with a WHIP below 1.15.

Prediction: Phillies ML (-115 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

There are plenty of pieces in place for an Over against what’s a fairly modest total for a game at Citizens Bank Park this Tuesday night.

Once Wheeler departs, the Phillies’ slumping bullpen — 16th by ERA over the last two weeks at 3.54 — will take over. The Braves are currently ninth in the majors in runs per game (4.72) and have Austin Riley (18 homers) supplying the power at the heart of their lineup.

Braves manager Brian Snitker will try to let Morton go as long as he can, but he’ll eventually have to hand things over to an Atlanta bullpen that’s 17th by ERA over the last two weeks at 3.62. Alec Bohm figures to give the Braves’ pitching staff plenty of trouble, as he’s 5-for-12 (.400) lifetime against Morton, and is hitting .309 over the last two weeks. 

The trends support a play on the Over too, as the Phillies have exceeded the total in eight of their last 11 home games. The Over is also 19-6-1 in Philadelphia’s last 26 games following a win and 5-2 in the Braves’ last seven road games. 

Prediction: Over 7.5 (-105 at Caesars)

Best bet

Wheeler is a strikeout artist, and the Braves should play the role of muse tonight. 

Atlanta’s offense has compiled the second-most strikeouts of any team in the majors this season, behind only the Angels. They whiff at an incredible rate of 9.51 times per contest. 

Wheeler is averaging a career-best 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings in 2022, reaching seven Ks in nine of his last 10 starts. That includes his 10-punchout performance in Atlanta earlier this season. 

Prop bettors will want to act quickly before this line jumps up to 7.5 everywhere. 

Pick: Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts (-140)

MLB parlays

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