Astros vs Mets Picks and Predictions: Houston Hammers Carrasco in New York

Two of MLB's best teams clash in New York this week, as Houston hits the road for a date with the Mets. With uncertainty surrounding Carlos Carrasco, we're setting our sights on the Astros' bats in our MLB betting picks.

Last Updated: Jun 28, 2022 1:00 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Yordan Alvarez Houston Astros MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros and New York Mets open a two-game series on Tuesday night. The Astros are coming off a split in their four-game series against the Yankees, with both losses walk-offs. They enter this game as the -120 MLB betting favorite. 

The Mets, on the other hand, have the National League’s best record and just took two out of three against their NL East rivals the Marlins.

Here are our best free Astros vs. Mets MLB picks and predictions for June 28, with the opening pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET.

Astros vs Mets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Astros opened last night as the -125 favorite with the Over/Under set at 8.5. The line has now slightly adjusted with the Astros as the -120 favorites and the Over/Under set at 8 as of noon ET.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Astros vs Mets predictions

Picks made on 6/28/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Astros vs Mets game info

Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Date: Tuesday, June 28, 2022
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: ATTSN-SW, SNY

Astros vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Framber Valdez (7-3, 2.90 ERA): The left-hander has been outstanding for the Astros this season. In his last game against the Yankees, he had a quality start, going six innings and giving up just three runs but came away with a no-decision. 

Valdez has given manager Dusty Baker incredible consistency, pitching six or more innings in each of his last 11 starts, giving up more than three runs just once over that span.

Carlos Carrasco (8-3, 4.42 ERA): Carrasco, on the contrary, has been very inconsistent. He pitched against the Astros less than a week ago and was unable to get out of the third inning due to lower-back tightness. He gave up four home runs and five earned over just 2 1-3 innings, before being pulled due to injury.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Betting trend to know

Houston is 10-4 in its last 14 road games and the Over is 6-1 in Houston’s last seven Game 1s. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Mets

Astros vs Mets picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Both teams have had very good starts to their seasons. The Astros have the second-best record in the AL and are leading the AL West by 10 games. The Mets have the best record in the NL and have a five-game lead over the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. 

These two teams met less than a week ago in Houston for a mini two-game series in which the Astros took both games. Carrasco was the losing pitcher in one of those games and has given up five or more runs in two of his last three starts. 

The Astros have been solid on the road, posting a 25-16 record, and they also have a 25-2 record when they score at least five runs in a game. 

The Mets are 6-4 in their last 10 games, despite having a team batting average of .228 over that stretch, while the Astros are 7-3 in their last 10 games, outscoring their opponents by 20 runs.

Despite Carrasco’s win-loss record, he has been very up-and-down this season and has been battling some lower-back tightness suffered in his last start. There are question marks on how healthy he is heading into this appearance. 

Valdez has been consistently good all season and has had a quality start in each of his last 11 outings and has averaged five strikeouts per contest.

Yordan Alvarez has a .312 batting average to lead the Astros, with eight doubles and 22 home runs this season. Third baseman Alex Bregman has also stepped up his game as of late, going 11-for-33 with three home runs and seven RBI over the last 10 games.

Prediction: Astros moneyline (-125 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

The Over has hit four times in the last six head-to-head meetings between these two interleague opponents. 

Only four Mets batters have had an at-bat against Valdez, with Mark Canha the most successful, with three hits in nine at-bats. This is a Mets offense that has scored 365 runs this season and has a team batting average of .259. They are led by Pete Alonso, who has a .281 batting average and 22 home runs to go with 69 RBI this season.

As mentioned, the Astros spanked Carrasco for four home runs in their meeting last week. As a team, the Astros are hitting .269 lifetime against the 35-year-old Mets pitcher. Jose Altuve has seen Carrasco the most with 27 lifetime at-bats, resulting in 10 hits, including one home run. 

With the total set at eight runs, the number is low enough that the Astros as a team might hit the Over.

Prediction: Over 8 (-115 at bet365)

Best bet

Yordan Alvarez is a threat to any right-handed pitcher, but he’s coming off a game where he hit it out of the park in both his at-bats against Carrasco. Alvarez’s total bases is set at 1.5 (-120) which means a double or home run would crush this number. 

While it will be tough to replicate the same kind of success this time around, expect this Yordan Alvarez prop pick to be smashed with an extra-base hit of some kind tonight.

Pick: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (-120)

MLB parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Astros vs. Mets picks, you could win $52.84 on a $10 bet?

Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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